MSX US stock daily watch: a hawkish opening, rate-cut expectations were withdrawn

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Today’s Watch：

The newly appointed Fed chair, Worsh, attended congressional hearings for two consecutive days. Even though the day’s morning June CPI unexpectedly cooled significantly, he set the tone with a clear hawkish stance: “zero tolerance” for inflation, downplaying single-month data, and giving up forward-looking guidance. Combined with oil prices returning above $80, the market quickly reversed the once-warmed-up rate-cut expectations.

Data in One Minute：

• June CPI year-on-year fell to 3.5% (prior value 4.2%), core 2.6%, both below expectations, but still above the 2% target

• Worsh’s top five agenda items: inflation, a hawkish tilt in monetary policy; independence and reform being neutral, with only AI leaning dovish

• 7/28–29 FOMC: markets are betting on “no change,” with the focus for rate hikes shifting to September (about 60% probability)

• Implied probability of “zero rate cuts” in 2026 is about 80%

MSX View：

We believe that a softer CPI met with a new hawkish chairman, and the result is “cooling does not mean cutting.” Worsh wants inflation to truly return to target—not to pivot because of one or two months of good data—further reinforcing the “higher for longer” tone. For US stocks, it may weigh on high-valuation growth stocks in the short term, but if earnings are strong enough, they can still hold up. The real turning point is the core PCE on 7/30 and the subsequent big tech earnings reports: the “second episode” of policy will have to be written with data.

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Risk Disclaimer： Macroeconomic conditions and the US stock market may experience significant volatility. The content of this article is for academic and research observation reference for the MSX Research Institute only and does not constitute any investment advice.