$BTC has been trading inside the same log regression channel since 2017. And there's a rhythm here almost nobody is talking about.


Every bottom prints at the channel bottom:
2018 → channel bottom (−45%)
2020 COVID → channel bottom (−50%)
2022 → channel bottom (−38.06%)
2026 → channel bottom, in play right now (−38.88%)
Four for four. The last two within 1% of each other.
But the tops alternate:
2017 → overshoot ABOVE the channel (+171%)
2019 → contained top, inside the channel
2021 → overshoot ABOVE the channel (+167%)
2024–25 → contained top, inside the channel
Overshoot. Contained. Overshoot. Contained.
The 2024–25 cycle didn't "fail" — it was the contained top in the sequence. Exactly like 2019. And everyone wrote 2019 off too, right before 2021 escaped the channel.
Which means:
If the alternation holds, the next top is the escape. A +160% overshoot above the channel — the same magnitude as 2017 and 2021 — projects into the $400k–680k region into 2027.
And even if that sounds exaggerated: a mere retouch of the channel top from here sends us into the $200k–300k region. That's the conservative case.
We're at the channel bottom. The pattern says accumulate here.
S/O to @lastcoins for bringing this pattern to my notice.
BTC-0.66%
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