Recently, I’ve seen people discussing the relationship between stablecoin supply and ETFs chasing over-the-counter (OTC) funds. To be honest, the old chestnut “correlation ≠ causation” is something everyone knows, but in crypto, people still can’t help but lean into it. I’m actually pretty confused—sure, the emotional significance of big-cap data like stablecoin issuance and ETF net inflows might outweigh their real impact, but when it comes to a specific protocol or token, it doesn’t seem to have any direct connection to these macro numbers. Sometimes I even wonder: do those truly large funds look at the macro first and then choose targets, or is it the other way around?

That said, the atmosphere around the recent airdrop season and task platforms feels a bit strange. The points system is run like clocking in for work, and the anti-sybil measures are getting stronger and stronger. Some people, in order to farm more accounts, end up doing tasks like crazy—then after one airdrop, their profits might be less than if they just honestly waited and participated in a protocol. Forget it—this kind of game theory isn’t really my forte.

As for “long term,” some people say it’s a week, others say it’s a quarter. My own habit is to follow the project’s cadence. From a protocol’s launch to stable output, it’s about two market cycles. If after three months you still can’t see value support, then I might start doubting whether there’s actually any value at all. Anyway, just don’t treat macro data as faith.