Three weeks ago, SPCX shorts were at 5-7% of the float, about 40 million shares.

Today: 29%, 185 million shares, $25 billion in short bets.
From 5% to 29% in three weeks—this is the fastest accumulation of a short position among newly listed stocks in US stock market history.
The triggers are layered: Starship V3 test flight on July 16 was canceled—two Raptor engines failed to ignite, resulting in an automatic abort; SPCX also broke below its IPO price of $135 for the first time that same day, and it is now around $131; the stock has already fallen 44% from its $225.64 peak.
Economist Peter Schiff said on X: "SPCX is already 6.5% below the IPO price, down 44% from the high point, and the main lock-up period hasn't expired yet—by the end of the year, the float could expand 8x. Houston, we have a problem."
But there’s a mathematical counter-logic here that Wall Street has already noticed:
For every $1 move in price, it means about a $200 million change in profit and loss for holders of the 29% short position. Once any "good enough" catalyst appears—next Starship successful launch, or a Q2 earnings report (expected in early August) that beats expectations—the force pushing shorts to cover will drive the price higher, triggering more short covering, creating a loop.
27 analysts gave buy ratings, with an average target price of $244.50, about 86% upside from the current price. The lowest target price is $62.
Both sides’ math holds: shorts have supply logic tied to lock-up expiration, and longs have a mechanical squeeze logic.
The early-August earnings report is SPCX’s key time node to watch most this year. $SPCX ‌$Hanwha Ocean
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