7.19 Jack 4-hour market strategy



First, let’s talk about the overall market in a straightforward way. After the past two days, BTC’s lowest dip hit 62,505, then it rebounded and climbed all the way up. In the early hours, it surged and briefly touched 64,129. The intraday fluctuation range is very small—only a 0.12% amplitude for the whole day. Overall, price has been grinding back and forth within the small range of 64,050–64,130.

From the order book, it’s clear that sell pressure above is heavy. Around 64,772, a large number of sell orders are stacked up. The bid-ask volume ratio is already negative by more than sixty. When the bulls attempt to push higher, resistance is not small. This rebound is more like a repair move after a big drop; it failed to break through the prior high range. In the short term, bullish momentum is not strong enough. As long as it can’t hold above 64,800, the next likely scenario is continued consolidation with weakness. For execution, it’s not recommended to blindly chase longs. Waiting for a pullback to find support, or for a confirmed breakout, is safer.

Trading suggestion: trade within the range
Trading range: 65,000–65,500
Stop-loss defense: 66,000

Ziying tiering:
1️⃣ Ziying: 63,500
2️⃣ Ziying: 63,000

Attention, Xiaobai: The levels are not accurate to whole numbers. Based on the real-time market, prices may fluctuate up or down at any time, so adjust accordingly.
BTC-0.66%
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QuantitativeButNotPretentious
· 07-19 07:58
I have a question: if the broader market suddenly breaks above 64,800 with a big increase in volume, should you just go long in the opposite direction? After all, you said you should only look for longs once it holds—yet this grinding, choppy market is really making people anxious.
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PlanB_Researcher
· 07-19 07:18
Don’t look at the current low amplitude—after it builds up, it could have big moves. But following your logic, shorting within the range is indeed relatively safe, and setting the stop-loss at 66,000 isn’t too far either.
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FlagPatternWatcher
· 07-19 06:39
This rebound is indeed weak. With this much selling pressure, going long now will definitely get buried. I’d still wait for a pullback to 63,500 before considering it.
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MemeChronicle
· 07-19 06:11
The low of 62,505 from yesterday hasn’t been broken. Now it’s bouncing back to around 64,100. It feels like the bulls are just hard propping it up. Once the U.S. stock market opens tonight, I guess it’ll drop again—why don’t we follow you and try shorting one lot?
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TechBeliever
· 07-19 05:55
Bro, your analysis is pretty thorough. The sell order stack at 64772 is really intimidating. A negative bid-ask ratio of more than sixty suggests the bears are controlling the market. Short-term, it checks out to be bearish.
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