CryptoQuant: Bitcoin bear market may be nearing its end, and the cost basis for short-term holders has fallen to $69,000

Golden Finance reported that on July 19, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost wrote that the Bitcoin bear market has been ongoing for about 9 months, affecting both short-term holders and long-term holders. The cost basis of short-term holders has fallen below that of long-term holders, and after being confirmed for 3 days, it has triggered a “bear market nearing its end” signal. In calculating the long-term holders’ cost basis, this metric excludes BTC held for more than 7 years to more accurately reflect long-term positions that remain economically active.

Darkfost emphasized that this signal does not mean the bear market is immediately over, nor does it indicate that the market bottom has been confirmed; rather, it suggests the market may be entering the final stage of the bear market, during which using a DCA (dollar-cost averaging) strategy may be more reasonable.

He said that if the short-term holders’ cost basis later breaks upward again above the long-term holders’ cost basis, it can be viewed as a confirmation signal for the start of the bull market and can be used as a reference for when to end DCA. Currently, the short-term holders’ cost basis has fallen from $112,500 to $69,000.