Just took a look at US Treasury yields, and my heart sank. Rates behave like a switch in the short term—click, and risk appetite contracts; but in the long run, it’s more like warm water, slowly seeping into every position you hold. I’ve recently reduced my perpetual leverage, bought some out-of-the-money put options as insurance, and left the spot untouched. In plain terms, macro transmission to me is: “Stay calm, live through it, and wait for the wind to come.”

By the way, have hardware wallets been out of stock again lately? People around me have started rummaging through drawers looking for cold wallets. Security is something I’m genuinely anxious about—phishing links are impossible to guard against. I can’t even be bothered to open my computer; most on-chain actions are handled directly with a phone trading app. People say it’s risky, but isn’t it safer than mistaking and clicking the wrong link by a slip of the hand?

As for “long-term”—I can’t wrap my head around the kind of faith that lasts three years. My “long-term” is at most one quarter. Within a quarter, the macro narrative can change three times, and the technical picture can run through a full cycle of bull and bear. Don’t talk to me about poetry and distant places—if I can smooth out these three months, then we can talk about the next cycle.