Iran officially calls off the US-Iran peace agreement! The US military has carried out airstrikes for the eighth straight night, and Brent crude oil is approaching $90

Iran’s Supreme Leader Mujtaba launched a scathing attack on U.S. President Trump on the 18th, denouncing the agreement signing as “worthless,” and formally announced its withdrawal from the Iran-U.S. ceasefire agreement. Earlier, Iranian missiles had struck a U.S. military base in Jordan, resulting in 2 U.S. service members killed. The U.S. immediately launched retaliatory airstrikes for the 8th night in a row.
(Background recap: Trump announced the U.S.-Iran “ceasefire is over,” and sharply criticized Tehran’s thugs and the way Brent crude is nearing $80.)
(Background added: Mujtaba, the new leader of Iran, delivered his debut address: extremely hardline—ordering a “blockade of the Strait of Hormuz,” vowing revenge for his father with no compromise.)

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• Mujtaba speaks out rarely: Trump’s signature is “worthless”
• U.S. airstrikes for eight nights in a row; State Department issues a rare global travel advisory
• Oil prices surge, pulling the Fed toward rate hikes

Iran formally tears up the ceasefire agreement signed with the United States in June this year, and tensions once again heat up to the brink of full-scale war. The U.S. Central Command confirmed that on the 17th, Iranian missiles hit a U.S. military base in Jordan, killing 2 U.S. service members and leaving 1 soldier missing. Afterwards, the U.S. launched retaliatory airstrikes against targets inside Iran for the 8th consecutive night, aiming to weaken Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Mujtaba speaks out rarely: Trump’s signature is “worthless”

Iran’s Supreme Leader Mujtaba, who has rarely appeared in recent months, issued a rare written statement via Iranian state media on the 18th. The statement targets the U.S. side’s continued violations of the bilateral preliminary peace agreement. Mujtaba said plainly that Trump’s signature is now “worthless,” describing the other party’s promises as having no binding force whatsoever. He also warned that the Iranian people and the resistance front will ultimately make the U.S. “pay an unforgettable price.”

Fars News Agency (Iranian semi-official media) reported that Garibabadi (the current deputy foreign minister of Iran) earlier confirmed that Tehran has unilaterally stopped honoring its ceasefire commitments with the United States, and the Associated Press also quoted his remarks. He pointed the finger at the U.S., saying Washington first sabotaged the preliminary agreement reached in June, and later more or less discarded it. He also disclosed that Iran’s current policy focus has shifted to self-defense.

To sum it up: On June 18 this year, Iran and the U.S. signed the “Islamabad Reconciliation Memorandum,” a preliminary peace agreement that includes a 60-day ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. temporarily postponing oil export sanctions, and the initiation of nuclear talks. But on July 8, Trump had already unilaterally claimed at the NATO summit that the ceasefire “is over.” Immediately after that, from July 7 to 9, the U.S. carried out attacks on Iranian Revolutionary Guard fast boats, air defense systems, and radar sites, setting off the fuse for this round of conflict.

U.S. airstrikes for eight nights in a row; State Department issues a rare global travel advisory

In response to Iran’s counterattack, on the 18th the U.S. Central Command confirmed that it launched military strikes against Iran for the 8th consecutive night, and that later that evening it launched another round of attacks on targets inside Iran, focusing on weakening Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. On the same day, the U.S. State Department issued a rare “global” travel advisory, urging overseas U.S. citizens to remain highly vigilant. The warning said the situation in the Middle East could lead to “unpredictable escalation,” and that U.S. diplomatic facilities outside the Middle East could also become targets of attack.

In this round of conflict, Iran has repeatedly attacked U.S. bases in places including Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar with drones and missiles. The scope of attacks is no longer limited to a single country, showing that Tehran’s retaliatory actions are expanding into a multi-pronged approach.

Oil prices surge, pulling the Fed toward rate hikes

The rapid deterioration of the Middle East situation is also affecting global asset prices. The Brent crude oil price differential contract is currently approaching 90 U.S. dollars, reaching a one-month high. The market is concerned that if oil prices move higher further, it will drive inflation, and the likelihood that the Fed will raise rates in September may therefore also increase.