Citrini raises its DRAM price outlook: the third-quarter average price could rise 21% quarter-over-quarter, higher than TrendForce’s forecast

TechFlow news from Deep Tide, July 19: Analyst Jukan from Citrini said in a post that, according to the latest channel research, the global DRAM market’s average selling price (ASP) in the third quarter is expected to rise quarter-over-quarter by 21%. This outlook is higher than TrendForce’s earlier forecasts for traditional DRAM price increases of 13% to 18% and an overall increase of 8% to 13% including HBM.

The analysis believes that the DRAM price increase in the third quarter is driven by multiple factors, including a quarter-over-quarter rise in server DRAM prices of 20% to 30% and strong demand for high-speed LPDDR5; DDR5 and DDR4 spot markets continuing to heat up, with July prices rising further quarter-over-quarter; an increase in HBM4 orders; a long-term agreements (LTA) coverage ratio of below 50%, with more spot and non-LTA orders pushing prices higher; and, at the same time, emergency procurement by some OEM vendors, which also drives DRAM and NAND price gains to exceed 20%.

The market previously worried that storage-chip makers’ third-quarter performance might not meet expectations, but the latest results from contract price checks show that the DRAM price uptrend is stronger than market consensus. Meanwhile, the positive guidance recently released by TSMC and ASML further reinforces the market’s expectations for improving conditions in the storage industry.