Now the crypto community is actually in a relatively bullish phase.

In the bear market, almost every possible tactic was used: the Iran war, the stock market overall stalled, ETF flows were weak, open interest has kept increasing, and the shorts have almost received every macro bearish catalyst that could possibly happen. $BTC still holds above $60,000.
Many people have started to believe that BTC has already completed a bottom at 6w.
In reality, historically, many of the most violent sell-offs occurred after the market started believing that all the bad news had already been fully priced in.
In 2018, BTC repeatedly found support around $6,000 and this lasted for months. Nearly all the narratives appeared one after another—miner costs, long-term support, selling pressure exhaustion, and more. At one point, the market treated $6,000 as an iron bottom that couldn’t break. Then, in November, liquidity suddenly collapsed, and the price fell all the way to around $3,200.
In 2022, LUNA, 3AC, and Celsius blew up one after another. BTC then traded sideways around $20k for nearly five months. The market believed that industry leverage had basically been cleared. After that, FTX collapsed, and BTC fell again to around $15.5k.
Whether a bottom is truly in place depends less on how much bad news has already happened; in fact, there are still a large number of potential sellers with unrealized profits in today’s crypto market.
When panic from the next time it touches this portion of hidden whales, BTC will fall further.