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1. Trend outlook
- Daily timeframe: From March to July, the market maintained a five-month downward channel, with the primary trend moving down. Pay attention to the 4200 key breakdown signal; only after a break has there been a chance to open up upside space.
- 4-hour timeframe: The downtrend continues. 4080 is the core pivot between bulls and bears. Before it breaks, any rebound is likely a weak “false breakout” to lure longs; only after it breaks can you switch to a rebound-oriented view.
- 1-hour timeframe: On Friday, after a dip to 3960, there was a short-term rebound, but it is suppressed by the 4-hour downward channel, so the rebound height is limited.
2. Key levels
- Resistance levels: 4080 (4-hour bulls/bears pivot), 4100-4200 (daily strong resistance).
- Support levels: 3960 (short-term support), 3880 (target support after the break below).
3. Trading approach
- Main direction: After the rebound, approach 4080 resistance first to look for shorts. If 3960 support is lost, you can continue to look lower below 3880.
- Reversal signal: Only after 4080 breaks effectively can you adjust your thinking to follow the rebound, targeting the 4100-4200 range.
4. Risk warning
- All analysis is only personal opinion and does not constitute any basis for trading. Trading must strictly manage risk $XAUUSD