Another reversal: SOX Philly semiconductor falls, Micron surges!

Tonight, Micron/Flash finally held up after getting hit again and again: it opened down -5%, swung from a big V to +2%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is still down about 2%
From a macro perspective, funds have not left the market; only asset allocation and valuation logic have changed
First, the trading core has shifted: the market is re-pricing cooling inflation data, and Fed rate-hike expectations have decreased. DXY is 100.7, ending its run and closing flat on the daily; the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 4.53. Oil is up, but gold is also rising
Second, money has not yet returned to the most crowded AI trade: if AI is only being suppressed by macro interest rates, then as yields pull back, the whole semiconductor sector should rebound together. But only Micron/Flash shows a deep-drop rebound, while the beta semis are still broadly falling—AI may be entering the “stock-picking stage after the liquidation ends”
Finally, funds have rotated into assets with stronger certainty: bank stocks are the first to benefit, gold follows the rebound, and in crypto, the leading BTC has first rebounded
However, one day of data can’t prove the market has truly turned. Next, we still need to watch whether US Treasuries can hold around 4.5, whether gold can continue to stay strong, and compare the upside between Micron, Nvidia, and SOX
If what we’re saying—that AI begins entering the “stock-picking stage after the liquidation ends”—gets confirmed, I would prioritize buying 2 types:
① the most likely profit-making buyers (Microsoft, Google, Meta)
② the oversold short positions (Nvidia, Micron)