“genius traders” may be one of the biggest misdirections in the market

Lately, I’ve kept seeing many people package themselves as “genius traders.” I think this actually misleads a lot of young people who are just getting into the field.

In my view, this is a bad phenomenon—one that can easily lead people down the wrong path.

Many people believe that trading is a fast track to get rich. As long as you find the so-called “martial arts manual,” you can earn money steadily.

So all kinds of theories have appeared in the market: Elliott Wave Theory, Chan Theory, moving average systems, MACD, RSI, all sorts of indicators, all sorts of strategies… a bewildering array, as if each one claims it can beat the market.

I’ve basically seen all of these.

In the end, it all comes down to one sentence: the market goes up after falling too much, and goes down after rising too much.

That’s it.

Candlestick charts can only tell you the past; they can never tell you the future

Many people mistakenly think that once they’ve learned these theories, they’ll have the ability to make money.

But in reality, this is the biggest misconception.

Because candlestick charts record the past, not the future.

All technical analysis, in essence, deals with probability, not certainty.

Once you reach a resistance level, does it definitely not rise anymore?

No.

Once you reach a support level, does it definitely not break down?

No.

After a breakout, does it definitely form a trend?

No.

After a period of ranging, will it definitely still allow you to keep selling high and buying low?

None of these come with 100% answers.

The market will never run according to your script just because of a book or a set of theories.

“Trading strategies” sound easy, but are extremely hard to do

There are all kinds of trading strategies in the market.

Some people say:

When the price breaks out, go for the trend.

When the market is ranging, sell high and buy low.

Sounds simple, right?

But the moment you actually put your own money on the line, you’ll find it’s far from that easy.

The real difficulty isn’t knowing what to do—it’s whether you can persist in executing it when you’re actually placing orders.

So, in my view, short-term trading is fundamentally more like a high-risk gamble.

You think the market will range, so you bet on it continuing to move within the range.

You think the market will break out, so you bet that it will start a trend.

In essence, you’re using your judgment to participate in a market full of uncertainty.

If you’re only 20 years old, should you trade?

My answer is:

It depends on whether you truly like it.

If you watch the candlestick charts every day and feel it’s interesting, enjoy analyzing the market, and are willing to take on the happiness that comes with it—as well as the losses—then of course you can go study it.

After all, any interest is worth investing time in.

But you also have to know this one thing:

To do trading well, you need to invest far more time than most people imagine.

Many people think trading is very free.

In reality, great short-term traders spend a huge amount of time sitting in front of a computer.

Waiting for opportunities.

Watching the order book.

Analyzing the market.

Searching for better entry points.

It’s even more tiring than many office jobs.

Someone might say:

“You can place orders in advance.”

Theoretically, you can.

But in reality, after a few hours, the market environment may have already changed.

The entry point you originally thought was best may no longer be suitable.

So people who truly do short-term trading have to constantly adjust their judgment based on changes on the chart.

Even if you’re well prepared, you may still lose money

There’s an even harsher truth.

Even if you spend a lot of time watching the market.

Even if your entry point is good.

Even if your analysis logic is correct.

You may still lose money.

Because the market will never run forever according to your expectations.

The biggest enemy of trading is never technical analysis—it’s uncertainty.

So don’t think trading is easy.

In fact, it’s harder than many other industries.

Trading is actually a PVP game

The biggest feature of trading is PVP.

Your profits often come from other people’s losses.

Across the entire market, almost all participants are your opponents.

Its biggest advantage is:

There are almost no barriers to entry.

You can participate with $1.

You can participate with $100.

You can participate with ten million.

But the problem is exactly here.

A person with $1 and a person with ten million are sitting at the same table.

They may have completely different levels of information, experience, capital, and psychological resilience.

And entrepreneurship is different.

Entrepreneurship has barriers.

A business at the ten million level isn’t something everyone is qualified to take on.

The barriers are higher, but the competition pool is smaller.

From a probability standpoint, more people succeed through entrepreneurship than through trading

I’ve always believed:

The probability of achieving a great breakthrough through trading is far lower than achieving one through entrepreneurship.

Look at who the world’s richest person is.

Musk.

Who is China’s richest person?

Zhang Yiming.

Who is the richest person in crypto?

CZ.

If you narrow the scope further.

In the top ten of the crypto wealth list, almost all are entrepreneurs.

It’s rare to see someone truly become an industry leader by relying on trading alone.

Now narrow it to your own city.

The local richest person is likely someone who runs a real business—manufacturing, internet, or other companies—rather than a professional trader.

This doesn’t mean trading can’t make money.

It means that, in the long run, creating value tends to be easier to accumulate into huge wealth than gambling on value.

Don’t just look at the survivors

Many people use examples of legendary traders.

But the bigger problem with the market is:

You can only see the people who succeeded.

You can’t see the people who failed.

Survivorship bias is especially severe in trading.

Those who made a lot of money may have gone through countless near-death experiences.

If you made them live the same life again, they might not be able to replicate the same results.

Because trading always comes with luck.

As long as you keep sitting at the table, there will always be enormous risk.

Closing thoughts

So I want to say this to many young people right now:

Don’t mythologize trading.

It isn’t that mysterious, and it’s not that dazzling.

If you truly love trading, like studying the market, are willing to invest a lot of time, and can accept long-term losses and psychological pressure, then by all means try it.

But if you’re only drawn because you think trading makes money fast and comes easily, or you’re lured in by so-called “genius traders,” then I suggest you be cautious.

With the same amount of time invested, putting it into areas you truly care about and that can steadily create value often yields a higher chance of success.

Because what truly changes your life is often not a flashy trade, but a long-term ability to accumulate.

Interest can keep you investing; ability can keep you creating value; and value is the real source of wealth.