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The more storage becomes profitable, the more dangerous it is ⚠️
Besides investors worrying about prices topping out, in storage suddenly gets bigger:
The US Federal Reserve worries that AI will boost consumption and affect CPI. Apple CEO Tim Cook publicly accuses storage price hikes, raising iPhone prices. Korean storage faces an antitrust lawsuit, while Chinese manufacturers are also being targeted by the US, fearing they could threaten the supply chain.
You’ll find that storage is basically the “oil” of the AI era.
When crude oil is at its most profitable, the market never just talks about how strong demand is—it also discusses whether oil prices will stoke inflation, whether oil-producing countries are manipulating supply, and whether the government will intervene to control prices. In any case, some of the electronics enthusiasts around me haven’t been building PCs lately; memory prices have kept rising, and costs have ended up more than 3 times higher.
But memory manufacturers don’t dare easily switch production or expand capacity. Everyone knows this is a cyclical product, and the investment costs are too high. Influencing the capital markets with policy measures, then cooling prices through valuation, is a pretty good path.
Bold prediction: this storage cycle most likely isn’t over yet, but the peak valuation has already appeared early.
What political risk truly hits is not sales or profits, but how many times’ valuation capital is willing to put on that profit.