Wash is tough (hawk)

The first thing he does every day is to summarize the latest fundamental picture from the past day
Under the current macro backdrop directly affecting asset volatility
Fundamentals are what need to be understood first, and only then to look at technicals
This applies to crude oil-gold-BTC-US stocks (ordered by impact priority)
To sum up: The current fundamental impact is both bullish and bearish at the same time. July is still in the phase where rate-hike expectations remain low, which is a positive. But after mid-August, rate-hike expectations will reignite, and the September rate-hike expectations will be even higher and bearish.
Therefore, in July the market environment is a range-bound rebound trend (gold $XAU , $BTC ), not a strong one-way market. Avoid chasing longs with emotions, and don’t over-fear chasing shorts either. Buying on pullbacks is the best strategy. The July 30th rate decision meeting basically kept interest rates unchanged, which is bullish.
The only current bearish factor is the escalation of the US-Iran situation, which leads to higher crude oil prices. Although yesterday’s 70-minute bombardment didn’t create too much volatility for gold or crude oil—its impact even seemed to be directly reduced—it hasn’t eliminated the risk in that situation. On the contrary, if high oil prices continue without easing, it will push up inflation expectations again, offsetting the recent CPI and PPI tailwind that has been weak.
In addition, the past two days, in the testimonies Wash delivered at hearings in both houses of Congress, he also conveyed important bearish information. Wash is “tough (hawk)”. In both appearances, his posture was consistent: zero tolerance for persistently high inflation. But the inflation task hasn’t been completed. CPI and other indicators are not the only reference. He is not going along with Trump’s demands for rate cuts, and there is still tail risk for additional rate hikes this year.
Overall, current fundamentals are somewhat contradictory, but as time passes, events will become clearer. As long as the US-Iran conflict doesn’t keep escalating, oil prices don’t keep breaking upward, and inflation will naturally cool—then all is good. Conversely, if stagflation restarts, it’s bad for gold, crypto, and US stocks.
If you think the summary is good, follow and check, and then read the subsequent market interpretations.
【Risk warning: personal opinion only as a record, not constituting any investment advice】