Five months of sideways consolidation hasn’t blown up many people; if the Federal Reserve really adds another 50 basis points, it’s still not really certain what upside is ahead.

Bitcoin is consolidating around $62,000, down about 50% from its all-time high. Over the past five months, its volatility has remained between 60,000 and 80,000. The RHODL ratio hit 6.5 in early July, the second-highest level in history; it has since fallen to below 6, indicating that long-term holders’ wealth is gradually transferring to new buyers. Tight integration over five months has not yet shown signs of large-scale liquidation. If the Federal Reserve continues to raise rates, prices may still fall over the next six months, and the market expects another 50 basis points of tightening.