Trend prediction and order placement strategy for 2026.7.8 (for personal learning and review only)

Yesterday's prediction and orders scored 95 out of 100; almost all market movements were perfectly on point. Except for the missed long in the morning. Currently holding a short at 63888, and an ETH short at 1996.

Today's market analysis and forecast:

Pullback to Bollinger Bands middle band for repair (main scenario, probability 75%)

BTC pullback to 633-634 middle band support to complete indicator repair; ETH pullback to around 1776;

Logic: Short-term RSI overbought, profit-takers exit after the rally, pullback to moving averages to absorb selling pressure; after Bollinger Bands contraction, another break above the previous high; this is a consolidation shakeout during an upward continuation.

High-level narrow-range sideways oscillation (secondary scenario, probability 20%)

BTC wicks back and forth in the 633-641 range; ETH oscillates in the 1776-1809 box; Bollinger Bands continue to contract; the day's volatility narrows; waiting for the evening US stock market liquidity to choose a breakout direction.

Volume breakout above the previous high to new high (small probability, 5%)

BTC breaks and holds above 640 with volume, directly targeting the 647 high; ETH breaks and holds above 1809, looking at 1833; currently difficult to achieve given the environment.

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1. Scale into longs on pullback

BTC: Small position at 632-633, add at 626-628, first take-profit 640, second take-profit 647

ETH: Small position at 1775-1778, add at 1743-1746, first take-profit 1807, second take-profit 1830

2. Small short at previous high resistance (strict conditions: after touching resistance on the 5-minute chart, two consecutive K-line highs lower, forming a long upper shadow stagnation bearish candle, RSI turning down)

BTC: 640-641, stop loss 647, first take-profit 633-634, second take-profit 626-628

ETH: 1807-1810, stop loss 1835, first take-profit 1777, second take-profit 1744

3. Trend breakdown short (bull structure destruction operation)

BTC: 1-hour K-line body breaks below the 627 lifeline; bounce to 629 to short, stop loss: 635, target 621

ETH: 1-hour body breaks below the 1744 lifeline; bounce to 1752 to short, stop loss: 1790, target 1706

Note: If BTC holds above 641 with volume and ETH holds above 1810, close all short-term shorts and add to long base positions.

If it breaks below 628/1744, clear long positions and switch to bearish thinking.

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Want to say a few words: For the sake of others, I've gradually gotten used to intraday short-term trading and haven't done long-term positions for a long time. Now let me take a look and analyze the long-term cycle trend, just for future review.

I heard the market is collectively bearish? Personally, I think there won't be a direct unilateral sharp decline in the coming days. The daily bullish reversal pattern has already appeared. The probability of breaking below the previous lows of 577 and 1504 is extremely low.

Logic:

1. The previous decline wave low was 577; this round's V-bottom at 612 shows a clear rise in the bottom; bearish momentum is already exhausted.
2. MACD: Daily DIF has turned up sharply from deep waters, a typical daily divergence repair.
3. MA lines: MA20 and MA60 have simultaneously flattened and turned upward; price holds above all short-term moving averages; bearish moving average suppression has collapsed.
4. Bollinger Bands: Daily lower Bollinger Band at 58306 forms strong support; price has moved off the lower band towards the middle band at 656; Bollinger has shifted from expansion decline to contraction accumulation.

Market forecast:

1. Daily bullish continuation, oscillating upward to break the previous high (main trend, probability 75%)

2. Wide-range box oscillation, back-and-forth battle between bulls and bears (secondary scenario, probability 20%)

3. Daily bearish resumption, breaking below previous lows of 577/1504 (very small probability, 5%)

Key focus on two points: Only a break above 6128/1728 would trigger a unilateral decline; a break below 64731/1833 would trigger a unilateral rally. If these two levels are not broken, don't talk about big bear or big bull. Any such talk is just emotion.

Personally: Short-term 1-2 days, the oscillation repair is an indicator repair after the rally, not a reversal to bearish. Medium-term 3-5 days: After repair, bulls will dominate a slow upward move, a slowly rising oscillation, not a rapid unilateral surge.

Alright, time to sleep. Another hour wasted.