Bernstein’s report is quite interesting. A 54% drawdown is fairly gentle. The year-end goal of 150k is still on track. Liquidity isn’t as broken as sentiment, so we keep crouching, watching for signs of life.

According to The Block, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said that although BTC has retreated about 54% from its peak of roughly $125k in October 2025, the drawdown is still noticeably smaller than the typical 75% to 90% retracements commonly seen at the end of past cycles. Bernstein maintains its $150k year-end BTC target and will continue to monitor whether capital flows show “signs of life.” Bernstein noted that in 2026, the total net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and the custodians/treasury firms totaled about $10 billion, far below the $60 billion in 2025, but against the backdrop of BTC’s roughly 50% pullback, capital flows are not as pessimistic as market sentiment suggests.