As soon as the rebound appeared, many people started asking: Is it the bottom? Is the bull back?

To be honest, this kind of question gets asked every time there's a drop, and also every time there are a few green candles.

But compared to candlestick patterns, I pay more attention to another set of data — ETF fund flows.

Over the past ten days, U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, with IBIT, FBTC, and GBTC all reducing their positions.

Prices are rising, but funds are leaving.

This is actually two completely different signals.

If it were truly a trend reversal, prices and funds should be warming up together, not going in opposite directions.

The current rise is more like a technical recovery after an oversold condition earlier, plus some short covering.

In other words, it's not that buying pressure is too strong; it's that selling pressure has temporarily paused.

There is a kind of rise in the market that is a real rise, and another kind called 'can't go down anymore.'

These two have the same surface result, but the underlying meanings are completely different.

The former is pushed up by incremental funds entering the market; the latter is a bounce because no one is selling.

Currently, it looks more like the latter.