Let's talk about last night's nonfarm payrolls. Overall data came in 57k below expectations, with market consensus at 113k, and the period from May to April was revised down by 74k. The unemployment rate fell to 4.19% due to a decline in labor force participation, below the expected 4.3%. Average hourly earnings matched expectations, at 35 basis points. Employment continued to grow in professional and business services, social assistance, and healthcare. In June, the leisure and hospitality sector saw a decrease of 61,000 jobs, reflecting weaker seasonal hiring than in previous years.



As oil prices fall by 70, is the weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data a signal of further rate cuts?
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