People in the crypto world measure everything in minutes. I happened to glance at the calendar on the wall and realized half the year is already gone.

The first half is over, and many say this is the worst first half since 2022.
The numbers support that. BTC fell from a January high of $97,008 to around $60,000, a drop of about 30% in the first half—the second worst first-half performance in Bitcoin’s history, only worse in 2022.
But when I looked at the details of 2022, I found this time is actually very different.
2022 was the collapse of Terra/LUNA, the blowout of Three Arrows Capital, Celsius freezing withdrawals, and FTX being the final straw—a chain of explosions, each forcing sell-offs, every trade a forced liquidation.
Not this time. So far, no major counterparty has collapsed. Strategy holds over 580,000 BTC without facing liquidity issues. ETF redemptions have been orderly and slow, concentrated in the hands of the largest holders. This is active position reduction, not forced liquidation.
To use an analyst’s words: 2022 was “forced sellers exhausting supply, and then the market stabilized naturally”; 2024 is “trimming positions, and as long as AI stocks continue to outperform, trimming will continue”—these two types of selling have no same natural endpoint.
But there is one thing 2022 didn’t have that this time does: the 200-week moving average is now around $59,000–$61,000. This line has marked major bottoms in every bear market—the accumulation stages of 2015 and 2019, and the $16,000 low in 2022—all tied to the 200-week moving average. Bitcoin has just touched this line.
That doesn’t mean it will bounce immediately. It means historically, smart money starts to appear near this level.
Three key catalysts for the second half: whether the CLARITY Act passes, whether the Fed signals rate cuts, and whether ETF capital flows reverse. If none happen, the grind continues; if any is confirmed, the rebound window opens.
The Fear & Greed Index is now at 11—extreme fear. The last time people bought at this level, well, you know how that turned out.