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The Last Fairy Tale of the Checkered Legion: Croatia's Hard-Fought Victory? -- Little Fortune God's World Cup Betting Diary 🔥

The match between Portugal and Croatia has kicked off, and the whole world is waiting for Portugal to win, but I bet—the Checkered Legion will have the last laugh.‌ Not a big win, not a complete victory, but a‌ hard-fought victory‌ that grinds teeth, fights to the last drop of blood, and relies on experience and willpower to send Portugal home.

Score? I guess 2:1, a stoppage-time winner in extra time. The process? It will make your heart stop three times.

The reasons are as follows👇

1. The DNA of Knockout Matches: Croatia Is the Most Terrifying Species on This Planet

Remember this number:‌ Over the past two World Cups, Croatia played 7 knockout matches and won 5.‌

2018: Eliminated Denmark on penalties, eliminated Russia in extra time, eliminated England in extra time, lost to France in the final — runner-up.

2022: Eliminated Japan on penalties, eliminated Brazil on penalties, lost to Argentina in the semifinal — third place.

‌7 knockout matches, 5 wins, of which 4 came via penalty shootouts and 2 via extra time.‌ What does this mean? It means this team has developed an almost instinctive muscle memory when it comes to "winning."

And Portugal?‌ Over the past two World Cups, they have 0 wins and 2 losses in knockout matches, eliminated in the round of 16 both times.‌ In 2018 they lost 1-2 to Uruguay, in 2022 they lost 0-1 to Morocco.

One team is the "King of Knockouts," the other is a "Knockout Choker." When these two teams meet in a knockout match, who do you think has the greater psychological advantage?

2. Modric's Last Dance Will Burn with Energy You Can't Imagine

Modric is 40 years old, and this is his last World Cup.

In the final group stage match against Ghana, in the 83rd minute, he took a corner kick, and Vlasic scored a header for the late winner, Croatia reversed to win 2-1 and advanced. After the match, Modric knelt on the turf, tears streaming down his face.

‌Do you think that was sadness? No, it was an old veteran telling the world: I'm not dead yet.‌

The Modric of knockout matches and the Modric of group stages are completely two different people. In the 2018 World Cup, he was the best player in every knockout match, turning England's midfield upside down. In 2022, he was still the calmest player on the team before the penalty shootout against Brazil.

‌When a 40-year-old veteran treats this match as his last battle, the energy he unleashes is enough to crush the confidence of any young player.‌

And what about Portugal's midfield? Bruno Fernandes is indeed talented, but under the high pressure of knockout matches in major tournaments, his consistency is far inferior to Modric's. Once Croatia's three-man midfield suffocating system cuts off his passing lanes, Bruno Fernandes becomes an "invisible man."

3. Livakovic: As long as it goes to penalties, Croatia has already won half the battle

This is the reason I'm most confident about.

‌Dominik Livakovic is the most terrifying penalty-saving goalkeeper in World Cup history, bar none.‌

In the 2022 World Cup round of 16 against Japan: saved three penalties. In the quarterfinal against Brazil: saved one penalty. In those two penalty shootouts, he single-handedly carried Croatia into the semifinals.

Portugal's goalkeeper Diogo Costa is indeed good, but in a pure psychological battle like a penalty shootout, the gap between him and Livakovic is not on the same level.

‌My judgment is: this match will likely be a draw within 90 minutes, but once it goes to a penalty shootout, Croatia has already won.‌

And given Croatia's playing style, what they are best at is dragging the match into extra time and then into penalties. This is no coincidence; it's Dalic's tactical design.

4. Portugal's "Inner Demon" Is More Lethal Than You Think

Do you know what the whole Portugal team fears most right now?

‌Not Croatia, but their own history.‌

Being eliminated in the first knockout round of two consecutive World Cups is no longer a tactical problem; it's a psychological trauma. After losing to Morocco in 2022, no one knows what Martinez said in the locker room, but ever since then, the entire Portugal team has seemed cursed in knockout matches —‌they become weak at the crucial moment.‌

Ronaldo is 41 years old, and he has indeed scored in six consecutive World Cups, but have you noticed?‌ He hasn't scored in a knockout match for a long time.‌ The last time he scored in a knockout match was the hat-trick against Spain in 2018, which was seven years ago.

A 41-year-old veteran, carrying the immense pressure of his "last World Cup," standing on the knockout stage —‌every touch of his will be magnified, every mistake will be remembered.‌ This kind of pressure is enough to crush anyone.

And Croatia? They are "the barefoot who don't fear the well-shod." No one expects them to win, no one puts pressure on them.‌ When a team has no burden at all, they can play their best football instead.‌

5. Set Pieces: Croatia's Assassination Weapon

A seriously underestimated statistic:‌ In this World Cup, Croatia's set-piece scoring efficiency ranks among the top three of all teams.‌

Modric's corners and free kicks have accuracy comparable to missile guidance. Gvardiol and Sutalo's heading ability makes them two mobile artillery pieces in set-piece attacks.

Portugal's defense is held up by Ruben Dias, but facing Modric's kind of free kicks that "skim the grass, curve around the wall," even the best center-backs can only pray.

‌I predict that the first goal of this match will most likely come from a Croatia set piece.‌ Modric will take a corner in the 55th minute, Gvardiol will outjump Ruben Dias and head the ball in, 1:0.

6. Midfield Suffocation: Croatia Will Make Portugal "Choke"

Who is Portugal's attacking core? Bruno Fernandes.

What does Bruno Fernandes need most? Space and time.

What is Croatia best at giving?‌ Neither space nor time.‌

The midfield trio of Modric + Kovacic + Brozovic, with a total age over 100, yet their running coverage and tactical discipline are among the best in world football today. They will block all of Bruno Fernandes's passing lanes like three nets, turning Portugal's attack into a primitive "lob it to Ronaldo" mode.

And Ronaldo is 41 years old, you want him to battle physically and contest headers against Gvardiol and Sutalo?‌ Isn't that bullying an old man?‌

‌Once Portugal's attack is completely stifled and Croatia sneaks in a goal from a set piece or counterattack, the match enters Croatia's most familiar rhythm — defending to the death, grinding down, dragging into extra time, then sealing the deal in the penalty shootout.‌