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$BTC has returned to a familiar position in the cycle.
The monthly candle closed below the 50-day moving average, and the MACD is at its weakest level since the last bear market. In the past, this has been when fear is at its highest, but it also marks a good accumulation zone.
At the same time, the macro environment is improving:
• ISM PMI is at a four-year high
• Oil prices below $68.50, helping to ease inflation
• Job openings are at a two-year high
If the four-year cycle plays out again, the next 2-3 months could become the last good accumulation phase before the next major rally.
The key level to watch is $62.6K (200-week moving average). A break above that level would be a bullish signal. Until then, expect heightened volatility.