#SOLANA Solana (SOL): What to Expect in July 2026?

SOL is trading near the $77 mark, having risen 16% on a weekly basis. However, despite this level, it remains approximately 74% below its all-time high. While the search for a price bottom continues, on-chain activity is approaching yearly highs.
This contrast signals a pivotal month for SOL. The bearish price outlook on long-term timeframes is juxtaposed against the Solana network's strongest figures of the year.
Solana Network Activity Tests Yearly High
On-chain data paints a healthier picture than price alone. There is a sharp increase in the number of active addresses, with the figure re-testing the 7 million level—just shy of the yearly high.
The transaction count—measured by the seven-day average of transactions per second—is rising steeply and approaching 1,100. This level could signify a new all-time high (ATH) in network efficiency.
This creates a distinct divergence: network activity continues to rise, while the token price hovers near lows not seen in over a year.
Much of this recent surge in transactions stems from meme coin launchpads and speculative airdrops on Solana. However, sustained usage at this level would significantly strengthen the fundamental case for a price recovery.
Bearish Signals Persist on the SOL Weekly Chart
The weekly chart presents a more cautious picture. SOL is trading approximately 74% below its all-time high of $293 and is at its lowest price point since December 2023. The price is currently defending the long-term 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level around $73. This level stands out as the final strong support point before a deeper decline could begin.
The first significant resistance lies at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, around $120. A return to this zone would require a rise of over 55% from the current level.
Weekly trading volume continues to contract; this typically signals an accumulation phase and low volatility. However, the overall structure indicates a continuing downtrend, as buyers have yet to reclaim higher levels. Recent leveraged liquidations in the market highlight the fragility of investor sentiment.
Solana Price Forecast: Will $80 Prove to Be a Key Level?
The daily chart is showing early signs of a potential bottom formation. SOL broke below its rising channel in June and retraced to $63, nearing its target level.
The price subsequently rebounded sharply from this support and is now testing resistance just below $80. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to the 60 level, signaling that buyers are gaining momentum.
A daily close above $80 would strengthen the recovery scenario, paving the way for a move to $100 and subsequently $120. If the price fails to hold above $73, a retest of the $63 demand zone could come into play.
The upcoming "Alpenglow" consensus upgrade could act as a price catalyst if implemented in the third quarter. Meanwhile, market weakness—often reflected in recent ETF outflows—remains a primary risk factor. All eyes are now on whether SOL can leverage its strong network dynamics to achieve a decisive breakout above the $80 mark in July.
‍$SOL