At first I assumed the appeal of $NEWT was simple: down more than 90% from its first year high, so most of the downside looked already priced in. The supply side complicates that. Under a quarter of the one billion token cap has ever entered circulation. The rest sits behind a vesting schedule that runs to 2029, and the largest single unlock yet landed right on the one year mark, dwarfing every monthly release before it. Unlocked isn't the same as sold, but it puts more tokens within reach of an exit than current volume could comfortably absorb. The protocol's actual pitch, compliance checks running at the transaction level for onchain agents, is real and still early. Usage is only beginning to show up. Price already fell to reflect a token still waiting on its users. What I'm watching now isn't the chart. It's whether demand arrives before the unlocks do, or whether each release just meets a market that was only ever renting the float. Grounded in NEWT's current price, supply, and unlock schedule this week; exact circulating supply figures vary a bit by tracker, so worth a quick double check before you publish.