Analysis: Bitcoin rebounds above $61k, long-term holders cover positions but ETF outflows continue.

Odaily Planet Daily News Bitcoin rebounded above $61k on Thursday, recovering from a 21-month low hit earlier this week, as the market showed signs of repair after sharp fluctuations. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $296 million on July 1, continuing the trend of capital outflows; previously, June saw outflows of about $4.5 billion, one of the worst months on record. Among them, the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF recorded a single-day net inflow of $36.3 million, ranking first.

On-chain data shows that long-term holders have re-entered the accumulation phase after a prolonged period of distribution, with the buying intensity of the 100–1000 BTC address cohort increasing. Currently, approximately 10.83 million BTC are in an unrealized loss state, higher than the 9.22 million BTC in profit. Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish pointed out that increased buy-side activity on Coinbase's order book and stabilization of market maker Gamma positions indicate that structural support is forming, but the derivatives market remains cautious. The Put/Call ratio in the options market has risen to a one-year high, implied volatility is increasing, and demand for hedging has strengthened. Meanwhile, Hyperliquid's long leverage exposure has risen to a cyclical high, indicating divergent market sentiment.

In terms of price structure, Bitcoin briefly fell below $58k and repeatedly tested support, currently still below the key Gamma Flip range of approximately $68k; the realized price of around $53k is considered an important structural support level. On the macroeconomic front, U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, delaying expectations for the pace of interest rate cuts. The overall crypto market remains in a phase of capital rotation and structural gaming. (The Block)