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174.63 for $SOXL, I repeat, 174.63. In 24 hours, it plunged from 233 to 171, a -19.89% drop. Today, all leveraged long positions in the semiconductor sector were liquidated across the market, with a volume of 2049M. This is not a pullback; it's a stampede-style liquidation.
The technical signals are very clear: the MACD on the 2-hour timeframe has already formed a death cross, and the RSI has dropped to 22.4, which is indeed an oversold extreme. However, the daily chart is breaking down below the previous support level of 185, and it closed at 174 with a gap-down open. If this gap is not filled within 3 days, it will confirm a bearish continuation pattern. With a 16x leveraged ETF, going long below the trend line is like catching a falling knife.
Don't listen to the "bottom-fishing heroes" in the chat who say buy more as it drops. SOXL is not BTC; it incurs overnight decay fees every day. If it consolidates for three days, you'll lose 5% of your principal just from that. My judgment is: if we consider 171 as a short-term bottom, then the resistance for a rebound is in the 195-200 area, which is the 5-day moving average. If foreign futures continue to fall tomorrow night, the next technical target I've calculated is 152, which is the left-side Fibonacci 0.786 level.
Here's my operational advice for the hardcore group: If you're empty-handed, place a limit order at 152 to buy, with a position size no more than 5% of total capital. If you already have a position, you must reduce half on a rebound to around 195, and set a stop-loss at the breakeven point. Don't bet on a one-sided move—SOXL can break through three layers of support in one massive volume event. The right-side confirmation signal is a volume-supported recovery back above 215; anything else is just a fake bounce.
I've been trading semiconductor leveraged ETFs for 4 years. I went all-in during the rally from 132 to 345, and I survived the single-day -25% drop in January. There's a rule in technical analysis: the probability of a gap-up the day after a single-day drop of more than 20% is only 28%. A true bottom needs at least three daily candles to stabilize. If you want to hold, keep an eye on the 174 line. If it breaks below, even the immortals can't save it. I am your trader, Old White.