Hey everyone! 👋

Currently, $BTC spot is oscillating around $60,000. Seeing this level, many are tempted to go all-in and bottom-fish.

✋ Hold your horses! Based on historical K-line data from Gate Exchange, I've reviewed key time and space data from past bull and bear cycles and marked them on the weekly chart (see attached image).

📊 Harsh historical cycle comparison:
1️⃣ 2018 bear market: High 19,858 → Low 3,155 (decline over 364 days, drop 84%)
2️⃣ 2022 bear market: High 69,000 → Low 15,468 (decline over 378 days, drop 77%)
3️⃣ Current cycle (end of 2005 - 2026): High 126,193 → Low 57,813.4 (only 270 days of decline so far, drop 54%)

⚠ Core findings:
The previous two bear markets took an average of about 371 days, but we're only 270 days in—both time and space are clearly insufficient. If history repeats, the true bottom is likely still ahead:

⏳ In terms of time: Expect about 101 more days (likely grinding until mid-October 2026).
📉 In terms of space: Total decline may widen to 65%-70%.
🎯 Golden pit range: Around 38,000 - 43,000 USDT.

🛡 My pyramid-building strategy (prevent missing the boat + control risk):
The current oscillation is likely just a mid-cycle consolidation. However, considering on-chain data and institutional cost basis, I recommend positioning in batches using a pyramid approach to reduce the risk of missing the bottom:

Base position (10%): Around $60,000 (in case of a sudden reverse upward).
Add position 1 (20%): Break below $55,000 (near on-chain average cost line).
Add position 2 (30%): Break below $45,000 (entering clearly oversold value zone).
Heavy position (40%): Break below $40,000 (historical major bottom zone).

💎 Holding and take-profit logic:
After buying, ignore short-term volatility and hold firmly until the next bull market price breaks above $126,193 again, then consider gradually reducing positions for profit.

Summary:
Don't catch a falling knife halfway up the mountain; patiently wait for both time and space to align. (The above is only a personal analysis based on historical cycles, not investment advice.)

Do you guys think this pyramid building strategy is reasonable? Feel free to share your thoughts or trading plans in the comments!