After the nonfarm payroll data was released, BTC briefly surged, but I think this wave is more driven by sentiment rather than a trend reversal.

After the data came out, the market started betting that the Fed wouldn't continue tightening in the short term, and risk assets also saw a wave of rebound. However, from the market perspective, U.S. stocks opened higher and then moved lower, with the AI sector notably weakening, indicating that capital isn't as optimistic about the future as imagined. A true rally is not driven by news catalysts but by sustained inflows of incremental capital.
Looking at Bitcoin, spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows recently, with highs moving lower and each rebound lacking volume confirmation. Currently, the area above 62400 for BTC remains a key resistance level. As long as the daily chart cannot hold above this level effectively, I still define this rally as a bounce within a downtrend.
The biggest issue in the market right now is still insufficient liquidity. Inflationary pressures persist, rate cut expectations keep wavering, and institutional capital hasn't returned to risk markets in scale. In this environment, it's better to respect the trend than to try to pick a bottom.
My personal view hasn't changed: BTC still has the chance to test the area around 55000, which looks more like the key observation level for this adjustment cycle. True opportunities often don't appear when the market is most active, but when everyone is unwilling to be bullish.