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The seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the U.S. increased by 57k in June, compared with expectations of 110k, and the previous value was revised from 172k to 129k.
The nonfarm payrolls significantly missed expectations, indicating a weak economy that requires rate cuts to stimulate. Expectations of rate hikes have weakened, while expectations of rate cuts are rising.
As soon as the news broke, gold surged by $60, the US dollar index plunged, and US stock futures rose to intraday highs. In the short term, this is bullish for gold, US Treasuries, and risk assets.
The credibility of all currently released data in the U.S. is questionable, so the data now seems more like a result of bargaining rather than a basis. Therefore, I feel it is more like a market rescue.
I also observed a very rare phenomenon:
Within just three hours after the market close, various big-name influencers and brokerage analysts from both China and the U.S. came out in force, collectively explaining to clients or followers that the "Meta computing power surplus" claim is a misinterpretation.
On the U.S. side, the recently popular "White-Haired Girl" stock guru posted several debunking posts in a row, with a noticeably tense tone;
On the domestic side, institutions such as GF Communication, Industrial Securities, and Soochow Computer also followed suit, and even Lenovo executives came forward to clarify, emphasizing that computing power is not in surplus.
To be honest, I have never seen so many analysts do the same thing in such a coordinated manner in such a short period of time.
This can only mean that everyone's interests are deeply tied to the AI track — the crowding is unprecedented, and it precisely reflects the market's extreme reliance on and fragility of the AI narrative.