On the 250th anniversary of American independence, 250 people are pardoned. Is there still hope for SBF to be released from prison?

Mars Finance News: On July 2, July 4 is American Independence Day. This year also marks the 250th anniversary of American independence. Inside the White House, discussions are ongoing about a proposal for a “250th Anniversary Presidential Pardon for 250 People.” The White House advisory team remains divided over whether the proposal has political benefits, and whether it will ultimately be signed is still unknown. However, the potential chance of clemency has already sparked intense lobbying by lawyers and intermediaries, with all sides hoping to obtain forgiveness for their clients before any possible announcement.

The Atlantic revealed that Jho Low (Liu Tezuo), the key figure in the case involving the misappropriation of billions of dollars in 1MDB funds, has been listed for a pardon. The U.S. Department of Justice previously filed charges against him for money laundering and conspiracy to bribe foreign officials. Jho Low has denied any wrongdoing through a spokesperson, and his whereabouts remain unknown to date. Rapper Pras Michel—who was convicted for a lobbying scheme related to the 1MDB scandal—is also under consideration.

The most closely watched potential clemency recipient in the crypto space is undoubtedly FTX founder SBF. After FTX’s collapse and bankruptcy in 2022, SBF was charged with multiple counts including fraud and money laundering, was sentenced to 25 years in prison in 2024, and is currently serving his sentence. Not long after he was sentenced, SBF’s family and team quietly began lobbying people close to Trump. In early 2025, his parents, through intermediaries, attempted to establish contact with figures within Trump’s circle. In March 2025, while in prison, SBF accepted an interview with conservative media outlet Tucker Carlson, publicly signaling goodwill and expressing benevolence. In June 2026, SBF formally submitted a “pardon after serving the sentence” application through the U.S. Department of Justice. Although Trump publicly said in early 2026 that he had “no plans to pardon SBF,” SBF and his team continue to work relentlessly, hoping to turn things around by seizing the opportunity for a large-scale pardon tied to the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States.

At present, White House officials’ response to the pardon proposal is as follows: “President Trump is the final decision-maker on all pardons. Trump will take seriously the constitutional powers granted to him to grant pardons and commutations. All requests must go through a strict review process by the Department of Justice and the White House Counsel’s Office before they are submitted to the president.”

Prediction market data shows that Trump’s potential pardon candidates are in fierce competition. Among them, former FTX executive Ryan Salame leads with a 54% probability, becoming the “person most likely to be pardoned by Trump before 2027,” while SBF’s probability of receiving a pardon before July 31 is only 1%, indicating an overall low chance. Ghislaine Maxwell, a figure associated with the Epstein case, has only a 5% probability of being pardoned by the end of 2026. In addition, international figures such as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo are also included in the discussions.