Torn Prosperity: Under the Dual Drive of AI and Resources, When Will the K-shaped Divergence Converge?

Since the US-Iran conflict, the K-shaped divergence has further intensified and gradually become the new normal of the global economy. This is no longer an internal contradiction of a few economies, but a common phenomenon faced by East Asia, North America, and resource-rich countries.

In East Asian export-oriented economies, the upper edge of the K-shape is driven by the AI technology revolution and computing power investment. South Korea's exports surged 70.9% year-on-year in June, exceeding $100 billion for the first time in a single month, the largest increase in nearly half a century. Among them, semiconductor exports reached $44.8 billion, a year-on-year surge of 199.5%; computer-related product exports more than quadrupled year-on-year.

South Korea's exports of non-tech products are sluggish, retail consumption growth is weak, and auto parts exports fell 2.4% year-on-year. However, with the structural shift of Korean household asset allocation from real estate to the stock market, household consumption is recovering rapidly driven by the wealth effect of the stock market.

Although China also shows highly consistent structural export strength on the upper edge of the K-shape — with AI-related hardware export orders up about 110% year-on-year in May, the production growth rate of integrated circuits and industrial robots continuing to climb, and the added value of high-tech manufacturing increasing by 15.1% year-on-year — in terms of consumption, May social retail sales fell 0.6% year-on-year, the first negative growth since the pandemic. Fixed asset investment fell 4.1% year-on-year cumulatively, real estate investment fell by more than 24%, and domestic demand recovery remains weak.

In the United States, on one hand, the economy is increasingly dependent on AI investment and capital expenditure by large tech companies, while both household consumption and employment growth have shown marginal slowdowns; on the other hand, consumption structure is extremely fragmented, with the top 10% of households by income contributing about 23% of consumption, while the bottom 10% only account for 4%. Low-income groups are under pressure from rising rents and debt accumulation. Resource-based economies like Brazil benefit from the systemic rise in resource price centers amid the wave of energy nationalism after the US-Iran conflict, but manufacturing and services remain sluggish due to rising costs and outflow of demand.

Competing for Resources and Equipment Coexist, Macro Gains and Micro Sentiments Mismatch

From a structural perspective, the world is currently undergoing three layers of K-shaped divergence: at the industry level, the divergence between AI and traditional industries; at the income level, the divergence between high-skilled and low-skilled labor groups; at the national level, the divergence between countries that have AI and resources and those that lack both. Countries with resource endowments (such as Brazil) or AI computing power advantages (such as Japan and South Korea) show stronger economic resilience. The upper edge of the K-shape, represented by South Korea, the United States, and China, benefits from the AI investment boom; the lower edge, represented by countries such as Germany, Vietnam, and India, which lack both AI advantages and resource endowments, face continued pressure on exports and manufacturing.