The U.S. pardons 250 people for the 250th Independence Day anniversary—does SBF still have a chance to be released?

BlockBeats News, July 2 - July 4 is U.S. Independence Day, and this year marks the 250th anniversary of American independence. The White House is internally discussing a proposal for a "250th Anniversary Presidential Pardon of 250 People." The White House advisory team is divided on whether this has political benefits, and it remains uncertain whether it will ultimately be signed. However, the potential pardon opportunity has already triggered intensive lobbying by lawyers and intermediaries, all hoping to secure clemency for their clients before any possible announcement.

The Atlantic has revealed that Jho Low, the central figure in the 1MDB multibillion-dollar fund embezzlement case, has been included on the pardon list. The U.S. Department of Justice previously filed charges against him for money laundering and conspiracy to bribe foreign officials. Jho Low has denied any wrongdoing through a spokesperson, and his whereabouts remain unknown. Rapper Pras Michel, who was convicted for a lobbying scheme related to the 1MDB scandal, is also under consideration.

The most closely watched potential pardon recipient in the crypto space is undoubtedly FTX founder SBF. After FTX collapsed and filed for bankruptcy in 2022, he was charged with multiple counts of fraud, money laundering, and other crimes. In 2024, he was sentenced to 25 years in prison and is currently serving his sentence. Shortly after his sentencing, SBF's family and team quietly reached out to people close to Trump to begin lobbying. In early 2025, his parents attempted to contact individuals in Trump's circle through intermediaries. In March 2025, SBF gave an exclusive interview to conservative media outlet Tucker Carlson from prison, publicly expressing goodwill. In June 2026, SBF formally submitted a "post-sentence pardon" application through the U.S. Department of Justice. Although Trump publicly stated in early 2026 that he had "no plans to pardon SBF," SBF and his team continue their efforts, hoping to turn things around through the large-scale pardon opportunity tied to the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States.

Currently, White House officials have responded to this pardon proposal, stating that President Trump is the ultimate decision-maker on all pardons, and that Trump will take seriously the constitutional power of pardon and commutation. All requests must go through a rigorous review process by the Department of Justice and the White House Office of Legal Counsel before being submitted to the President.

Prediction market data shows fierce competition among Trump's potential pardon recipients. Among them, former FTX executive Ryan Salame leads with a 54% probability, making him the "most likely person to be pardoned by Trump before 2027." SBF's probability of being pardoned before July 31 is only 1%, with overall odds not high. Epstein case associate Ghislaine Maxwell has only a 5% chance of being pardoned by the end of 2026. Additionally, international figures such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo are also being discussed.