[US Economic Data] US ADP employment increased by 98k in June, below expectations | US layoffs fell 53% month-on-month to 46k in June

Commonly known as the “Little Non-Farm,” the US ADP employment report for June showed an increase of 98k jobs, below the expected 118k, while the May figure held at 122k.

Data from the human resources firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that the number of layoffs announced by US companies in June fell 53% month-over-month to 45,849, and fell 4% year-over-year.

===The following is data for June 25===

The US May PCE price index rose 4.1% year-over-year, in line with market expectations, the highest since April 2023. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.4%, below the expected 0.5%, with the prior at 0.4%. During the period, the core PCE price index rose 3.4% year-over-year, also in line with expectations, with the prior at 3.3%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.3%, also in line with expectations.

For the week ending June 20, initial jobless claims in the US were 215k, below the market expectation of 225k. The prior was revised from 226k to 227k. For the week ending June 13, continuing jobless claims in the US were 1.821M, up by 21k week-over-week. The market had originally expected an increase of 5,000 to 1.805M.

The second revision to US Q1 GDP increased from the earlier 1.6% to 2.1%.

===The following is data for June 17===

US May retail sales rose 0.9% month-over-month, exceeding the market expectation of 0.6% and April’s 0.4%. Business inventories for April rose 0.5% month-over-month, in line with market expectations.

US May pending home sales rose 3.8% month-over-month, far above the expected 0.9%, with the prior at 0.3%.

===The following is data for June 12===

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June in the US was 48.9, above the expected 46, with the prior at 44.8. The preliminary one-year inflation expectation was 4.6, below the expected 4.9, with the prior at 4.8. The preliminary five-year inflation expectation was 3.4, below the expected 3.9, and the prior was also 3.9.

===The following is data for June 10===

US May PPI rises 6.5% year-over-year, above expectations; hits over a three-year high; core rises 4.9%, below expectations

US May PPI rose 6.5% year-over-year, above the expected 6.4%. The prior was revised from 6% to 5.7%. On a monthly basis, it rose 1.1%, above the expected 0.7%, and the prior was revised from 1.4% to 1.1%. For core PPI, the year-over-year increase was 4.9%, below the expected 5.4%, and the prior was revised from 5.2% to 4.9%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.4%, below the expected 0.5%, and the prior was revised from 1% to 0.7%.

===The following is data for June 10===

US May CPI rises 4.2% year-over-year, hitting a three-year high

US inflation data was broadly in line with expectations. The overall CPI for May rose 4.2% year-over-year, in line with expectations, with the prior at 3.8%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.5%, in line with expectations, with the prior at 0.6%. Core CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, in line with expectations, with the prior at 2.8%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%, with the prior at 0.4%.

===The following is data for June 5===

US May nonfarm jobs fall back to 172k; beats expectations | May unemployment rate holds at 4.3%

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that May nonfarm payrolls fell back to 172k, but were still higher than the expected 89k. April’s figure was sharply revised up from 115k to 179k, while March’s figure was revised up from 185k to 214k. The unemployment rate for the period held at 4.3%.

===The following is data for June 3===

US May services PMI rebounds to 54.5; beats expectations | May ADP adds 122k; above expectations

The US ISM services index for May rose from April’s 53.6 to 54.5, above the market expectation of 53.9. The services prices index for the period rose from 70.7 to 71.3, slightly below the expected 72. The new orders index unexpectedly rose from April’s 53.5 to May’s 57.3; the market had originally expected it to fall to 55. The May ISM employment index edged down from April’s 48 to 47.9, worse than the market expectation of 48.5.

Commonly known as the “Little Non-Farm,” the US May ADP employment report showed an increase of 122k jobs, slightly above the expected 118k. April’s figure was revised down from 109k to 105k.

===The following is data for May 28===

US April PCE rises 0.4% month-over-month, below expectations | Q1 GDP revised down to 1.6%, under expectations

The US April PCE price index rose 3.8% year-over-year, in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.4%, below the expected 0.5%, with the prior at 0.7%. During the period, the core PCE price index rose 3.3% year-over-year, also in line with expectations, with the prior at 3%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.2%, also below the expected 0.3%.

For the week ending May 23, initial jobless claims in the US were 215k, above the market expectation of 211k. The prior was revised from 209k to 210k. For the week ending May 16, continuing jobless claims in the US were 1.786M, up by 15k week-over-week. The market had originally expected an increase of 13k to 1.784M.

US April personal income was flat month-over-month, below expectations of 0.4% and the prior 0.5%. Personal spending for the period rose 0.5% month-over-month, in line with expectations, with the prior at 1%.

The second revision to US 2026 Q1 GDP was revised down from the earlier 2% to 1.6%. Broken down by components, the growth of personal consumption expenditures for Q1 was revised down by 0.2 percentage points to 1.4%, while gross private domestic investment (Gross private domestic investment) was revised down by a larger 1.7 percentage points to 7%.

===The following is data for May 24===

US consumer confidence slips; price concerns intensify

US consumer confidence edged down in May as the Iran war pushed prices higher, and consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions deteriorated.

The Conference Board consumer confidence index fell by 0.7 points to 93.1, and the prior month’s data was revised upward. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was 92.

Indicators reflecting current conditions fell by 3.2 points to a three-month low. Expectations for the next six months rose to 74.4 in May.

The report further shows that US consumers’ anxiety about high cost of living is intensifying. Although the job market remains broadly stable with fewer signs of large-scale layoffs, the recent surge in fuel prices is especially putting pressure on low-income households.

The report shows that two-thirds of consumers reported cutting spending due to rising prices. When asked about changes in spending habits, many respondents said they were buying fewer goods, postponing major purchases, and switching to cheaper alternatives.

Another consumer sentiment indicator released by the University of Michigan last week showed that US consumer confidence fell to a record low in May, with long-term inflation expectations deteriorating significantly and views on personal finances worsening. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, said in a statement: “With the inflationary impact from the war in the Middle East intensifying, consumer confidence edged down in May.”

===The following is data for May 22===

US consumer confidence falls to record low; Michigan consumer sentiment only 44.8

A University of Michigan consumer survey (Surveys of Consumers) said that due to the US-Iran war and high oil prices heightening people’s concerns about rising prices, consumer confidence in May fell to a record low.

The consumer confidence index fell from the initial reading of 48.2 to 44.8, also far below the 49.8 at the end of April.

Joanne Hsu, director of the consumer survey, said in a statement: “As disruptions in the supply chain through the Strait of Hormuz continue to push up gasoline prices, consumer confidence has fallen for the third consecutive month. The current confidence index is slightly below the historic trough set in June 2022. Most importantly, it appears consumers are worried that inflation will intensify and spread beyond fuel prices, and even in the long run.”

In fact, one-year inflation expectations rose from 4.7% last month to 4.8%, which is far higher than 3.4% in February before the war broke out. Long-term inflation expectations are expected to rise to 3.9%, higher than April’s 3.5%.

===The following is data for May 21===

US May manufacturing PMI preliminary at 55.3, above expectations | Initial jobless claims fall to 209k

The US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI preliminary for May was 55.3, above the expected 53.8, with the prior at 54.5. The services PMI preliminary was 50.9, below the expected 51.2, with the prior at 51.

In addition, for the week ending May 16, initial jobless claims in the US were 209k, below the expected 210k, with the prior revised from 211k to 212k. For the week ending May 9, continuing jobless claims in the US were 1.782M, broadly in line with the market expectation of 1.786M. The prior was revised from 1.782M to 1.776M.

===The following is data for May 14, 2026===

For the week ending May 9, initial jobless claims in the US were 211k, above the market expectation of 205k. The prior was revised from 200k to 199k. For the week ending May 2, continuing jobless claims in the US were 1.782M, up 24k week-over-week. The market had originally expected an increase of 22k to 1.78M.

Driven by factors such as rising oil prices, the US April export price index rose 3.3% month-over-month, far above the market expectation of 1.2%.

US April retail sales rose 0.5% month-over-month, in line with market expectations.

===The following is data for May 13, 2026===

As the Iran war continues, US factory price pressures have increased sharply. April PPI surged 1.4% month-over-month, far exceeding the expected 0.5%, bringing factory price inflation over the past year to 6%, a three-year high. Excluding energy and food, the month-over-month increase was 1%, above the expected 0.3%, bringing factory price inflation over the past year to 5.2%.

The report noted that in the overall rise in final demand prices in April, nearly 60% could be attributed to higher services prices:

Final Demand Services: The index rose 1.2% in April.

• Trade Services: Two-thirds of the overall increase in services came from a 2.7% jump in the profit rate for final demand trade services (the trade index mainly measures changes in profit margins charged by wholesalers and retailers). Among them, a sharp 3.5% increase in the profit margins of machinery and equipment wholesaling was a key driver.

• Transportation and Warehousing: Final demand transportation and warehousing services prices also rose significantly, up 5.0% month-over-month.

Final Demand Goods: After rising 1.9% in March, the index further climbed 2% in April.

• Energy Goods: In the goods category, more than three-quarters of the increase came from a surge of 7.8% in final demand energy prices. In the specific subitems, gasoline prices soared 15.6% in one month, contributing more than 40% of the goods category’s increase.

• Food and Other: Final demand food prices inched up 0.2% (including a sharp plunge of 49.7% in egg prices). Core goods prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.7%.

===The following is data for May 12, 2026===

US April CPI rises 3.8% year-over-year, above expectations | April core CPI increase rebounds to 2.8%, above expectations

US April inflation data was generally higher than expectations. The overall CPI year-over-year increase expanded to 3.8%, while the month-over-month increase slowed by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6%. Core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year, up by 0.2 percentage points from March’s 2.6%, and also above the expected 2.7%. The month-over-month increase also rose from March’s 0.2% to the latest 0.4%, above the expected 0.3%.

===The following is data for May 8, 2026===

April unemployment rate 4.3%

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that April nonfarm payrolls fell to 115k, but were still above the expected 65k. The prior was revised up from 178k to 185k. The unemployment rate for the period held at 4.3%.

===The following is data for May 7, 2026===

US weekly initial jobless claims rebound to 200k, below expectations | April layoffs rise 38% month-over-month to 83k

For the week ending May 2, initial jobless claims in the US were 200k, below the market expectation of 205k. The prior was revised from 189k to 190k. For the week ending April 25, continuing jobless claims in the US were 1.766M, down 10k week-over-week. The market had originally expected an increase of 24k to 1.80M.

Data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that the number of layoffs announced by US companies in April this year rose 38% month-over-month to 83k. Year-over-year, it fell 20.7%.

The firm said the technology sector was the hardest hit in April layoffs, at 33k, and the government sector also cut 9,149 jobs.

===The following is data for May 6, 2026===

US April ADP employment rebounds to 109k, below expectations

Commonly known as “Little Non-Farm,” US April ADP employment increased by 109k, slightly below the expected 120k. March’s figure was revised down from 62k to 61k.

===The following is data for May 5, 2026===

US April ISM services index falls to 53.6, below expectations | March JOLTS job openings fall to 686.6万? million? (686.6萬) above expectations

The US March trade deficit widened to 60.3 billion dollars, slightly below the market 61.0 billion dollars, with the prior at 57.8 billion dollars.

US March imports rose 2.3% month-over-month, below the expected 2.7% and the prior 4.4%. Exports for the period rose 2% month-over-month, above the market expectation of 1.9%, and the prior was revised down to 4.1%.

The US April services PMI final was revised down from the preliminary 51.3 to 51.

US March sales rose 7.4% month-over-month to 682k homes, above the expected 652k. February new home sales rose 8.9% month-over-month to 635k, slightly below the market expectation of 636k, and the prior was revised down to 583k.

The US April ISM services index fell from March’s 54 to 53.6, slightly below the expected 53.7. During the period, the services prices index held at 70.7, below the market expectation of 73.5. The new orders index plunged from March’s 60.6 to 53.5, far below the expected 57.3. The employment index rebounded to 48, but was still below the expected 48.3.

The US March JOLTS job openings fell from 6.922 million in February to 6.866 million, slightly above the expected 6.85 million.

===The following is data for May 4, 2026===

US March factory orders rise 1.5% month-over-month, above expectations

US March factory orders rose 1.5% month-over-month, exceeding the market expectation of 0.5% and the prior 0.3%.

===The following is data for May 1, 2026===

US April ISM manufacturing index at 52.7, below expectations; prices index hits more than 4-year high

The US April ISM manufacturing index was 52.7, below the expected 53.2, with the prior at 52.7. Among the components, the manufacturing prices paid index rose to 84.6, the highest since April 2022, also above the expected 80, with the prior at 78.3. The manufacturing employment index was 46.4, below the expected 48.8, with the prior at 48.7. The manufacturing new orders index was 54.1, below the expected 54.5, with the prior at 53.5.

In addition, the April S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI final was 54.5, higher than the preliminary 54.

===The following is data for April 30, 2026===

Q1 GDP estimate grows 2%; driven by private investment and consumption | March PCE price index rises 3.5% | Initial jobless claims fall to 189k

US Q1 GDP is estimated to grow 2%, below the expected 2.3%, with the prior at 0.5%. Among components, personal consumption growth was revised down from 1.9% to 1.6%, but still exceeded the expected 1.4%, contributing 1.08 percentage points to GDP. Private investment contributed 1.48 percentage points, government spending contributed 0.73 percentage points, while net exports offset 1.3 percentage points.

The US March PCE price index rose 3.5% year-over-year, in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.7%, in line with expectations, with the prior at 0.4%. During the period, the core PCE price index rose 3.2% year-over-year, also in line with expectations, with the prior at 3%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.3%, in line with expectations.

For the week ending April 25, initial jobless claims in the US were 189k, below the market expectation of 212k. The prior was revised from 214k to 215k. For the week ending April 18, continuing jobless claims in the US were 1.785M, down 23k week-over-week. The market had originally expected an increase of 10k to 1.815M.

===The following is data for April 29, 2026===

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 6.233 million barrels last Friday (24th), while the market had originally expected an increase of 300k barrels, with the prior at an increase of 1.925 million barrels.

US March durable goods orders preliminary rose 0.8% month-over-month, exceeding the expected 0.5%.

US March retail inventories rose 0.7% month-over-month, above the expected 0.1% and the prior 0.3%.

US March housing starts reached 1.502 million, above the expected 1.38 million and February’s 1.356 million.

===The following is data for April 28, 2026===

The US Conference Board consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose for April, increasing from 92.2 in March to the latest 92.8, while the market had originally expected a fall to 89.

===The following is data for April 23, 2026===

April S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was 54, above the expected 52.5, with the prior at 52.3. The services PMI was 51.3, above the expected 50.6, with the prior at 49.8. The composite PMI was 52, above the expected 50.6, with the prior at 50.3.

In addition, last week’s initial jobless claims for the US were 214k, above the expected 210k, with the prior revised up from 207k to 208k. For the period up to April 11, continuing claims were 1.821M, above the expected 1.816M, and the prior was revised down from 1.818M to 1.809M.

===The following is data for April 14, 2026===

US March PPI rose 0.5% month-over-month, below expectations | March core PPI rose 0.1% month-over-month

US March PPI year-over-year growth accelerated from February’s 3.4% to 4%, but was below the expected 4.6%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.5%, also below the market expectation of 1.1%, with the prior at 0.5%. March core PPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, same as February, below the expected 4.1%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.1%, also below the expected 0.4% and the prior 0.2%.

===The following is data for April 10, 2026===

The US released its first inflation data after the US-Iran conflict. The year-over-year increase in overall CPI for March rose from February’s 2.4% to 3.3%, slightly below market expectations. The month-over-month increase rose by 0.6 percentage points to 0.9%, in line with expectations. Core CPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, also below market expectations of 2.7%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.2%.

===The following is data for April 9, 2026===

US February PCE price index rose 2.8% year-over-year, the same as January, in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.4%, in line with expectations, with the prior at 0.3%. During the period, the core PCE price index rose 3% year-over-year, also in line with expectations, with the prior at 3.1%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.4%, in line with expectations.

US February personal income fell 0.1% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3% increase. Personal spending for the period rose 0.5% month-over-month, slightly below the expected 0.6%.

For the week ending April 4, initial jobless claims in the US were 219k, above the market expectation of 210k. The prior was revised from 202k to 203k. For the week ending March 28, continuing claims were 1.794M, down 42k week-over-week. The market had originally expected only a decrease of 3,000 to 1.829M.

The second revision to US Q4 GDP for last year was 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, further revised down from the earlier first revision of 0.7%.

===The following is data for April 8, 2026===

US February durable goods orders preliminary fell 1.4% month-over-month on the initial estimate, below the expected 1.2% decline, and the prior was 0%.

===The following is data for April 3, 2026===

US March nonfarm payrolls add 178k; unemployment rate falls to 4.3%

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that March nonfarm payrolls increased by 178k, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%.

Employment changes by industry:

• Healthcare: Added 76k (partly because some doctors returned to their jobs after a doctors’ strike ended)

• Construction: Added 26k

• Transportation and Warehousing: Added 21k (mainly from courier and messenger services)

• Social Assistance: Added 14k

Industries with job losses:

• Federal Government: Continued to shrink, losing 18k people. Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment has decreased by 355k.

• Financial Activities: Lost 15k

Data revisions:

• January: Revised from +126k to +160k

• February: Revised from -92k to -133k

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===The following is data for April 1, 2026===

March ADP employment increases by 62k, above expectations

Commonly known as “Little Non-Farm,” the US March ADP employment report showed an increase of 62k jobs, above the expected 40k. February’s number was revised from 63k to 6.6—(as in the source)

===The following is data for March 31, 2026===

US February JOLTS job openings fall to 688.2k; below expectations | March Conference Board consumer confidence rises to 91.8, above expectations

US February JOLTS job openings fell from January’s 7.24M to 6.882M, slightly below the market expectation of 689k.

US March MNI Chicago PMI fell from 57.7 in February to 52.8, far below the market expectation of 55. The Conference Board consumer confidence rose from 91 in February to the latest 91.8 in March, far above the market expectation of 87.9.

The FHFA house price index for January rose 0.1% month-over-month, in line with expectations, with the prior at 0.3%.

===The following is data for March 19, 2026===

US February PPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, above the expected 2.9%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.7%, also above the market expectation of 0.5%. February core PPI rose 3.9% year-over-year, above the expected 3.7%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.5%, also above the expected 0.3%.

===The following is data for March 13, 2026===

The US released its Q4 GDP revised figure for last year of 0.7%, below the estimate of 1.4%. The government shutdown in October was the main factor dragging down GDP growth.

US January PCE price index year-over-year rose from 2.9% in December last year to 2.8%, slightly down. This was below the market expectation of 2.9%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.3%, in line with expectations. During the period, core PCE price index year-over-year rose from 3% in December last year to 3.1%, in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.4%, also in line with expectations.

US January personal income rose 0.4% month-over-month, below the expected 0.5%. Personal spending rose 0.4% month-over-month, slightly above the expected 0.3%.

US March preliminary University of Michigan market sentiment was 55.5, above the expected 55, with the prior at 56.6. The initial one-year inflation expectation was 3.6%, above the expected and prior 3.4%.

===The following is data for March 12, 2026===

For the week ending March 7, initial jobless claims in the US were 213k, below the market expectation of 215k. The prior was revised from 213k to 214k. For the week ending February 28, continuing claims in the US were 1.85M, down 21k week-over-week, in line with market expectations.

US January housing starts rose 7.2% month-over-month to 1.487M, above the market expectation of 1.34M. Building permits for the period fell from 1.455M in December last year to 1.376M, below the expected 1.42M.

===The following is data for March 11, 2026===

US February inflation data was broadly in line with expectations. The overall CPI year-over-year increase remained at 2.4%. The month-over-month increase rose by 0.1 percentage point to 0.3%. Core CPI year-over-year remained at 2.5%, but the month-over-month increase fell by 0.1 percentage point to 0.2%.

===The following is data for March 6, 2026===

US February nonfarm payrolls plunge by 92k, far below expectations; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%

US February nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 92k, far below the expected increase of 55k. January was revised down from 130k to 126k. The February unemployment rate was 4.4%, above the expected and January’s 4.3%. In addition, the combined revision for US nonfarm payrolls in December and January last year was down by 69k.

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===The following is data for March 5, 2026===

US corporate layoffs in February fall 55% month-over-month to 48k | Weekly initial jobless claims hold at 213k, below expectations

Data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that US companies announced layoffs in February this year fell 55% month-over-month to 48,307, and also fell 72% year-over-year.

Andy Challenger, Chief Revenue Officer at the firm, said that the number of layoffs in February slowed, easing the elevated layoff plans since the beginning of the year. “As the US becomes involved in the Iran war, more layoff plans may emerge toward the end of the first quarter, because companies will tighten their belts amid uncertainty and rising costs.”

The technology sector recorded the highest number of layoffs, at 11k. In addition, the education sector also laid off 5,417 people in February.

Separately, initial jobless claims in the US last week held at 213k, below the expected 215k. Continuing claims were 1.868M, above the expected 1.845M and the prior 1.822M.

===The following is data for March 4, 2026===

The US released its February ADP data, commonly known as “Little Non-Farm.” Employment increased by 63k during the period, above the expected 50k. January data was revised down from 22k to 11k.

===The following is data for February 25, 2026===

There are signs that US inflation expectations are heating up. The latest January PPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, above the expected 2.6%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.5%, also above the market expectation of 0.3%. During the period, core PPI rose 3.6% year-over-year, above December last year’s 3.3% and the expected 3%.

===The following is data for February 24, 2026===

US December FHFA house price index rises 0.1% month-over-month, below expectations

US December FHFA house price index rose 0.1% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, with the prior revised up from 0.6% to 0.7%. In addition, the US December S&P/CS 20-City seasonally adjusted home price index rose 1.38% year-over-year, roughly in line with market expectations. The prior was revised up from 1.39% to 1.42%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.47%, above the expected 0.3%, with the prior revised up from 0.47% to 0.53%.

===The following is data for February 20, 2026===

US Q4 GDP estimate rises only 1.4% | PCE price index rises 0.4% month-over-month, above expectations

The Fed’s inflation reference indicator showed that the PCE price index for December was higher than market expectations. Overall PCE rose 0.4% month-over-month, above the expected 0.3%, and rose 2.9% year-over-year, higher than the expected 2.8%. During the period, core PCE price index rose 0.4% month-over-month, also above the expected 0.3%, and rose 3% year-over-year, higher than the expected 2.9%.

The US Q4 GDP estimate for last year was 1.4%, below the market expectation of 2.8%. Q4 GDP growth was mainly driven by increases in consumer spending and investment. However, these gains were offset by decreases in government spending and exports.

===The following is data for February 19, 2026===

US initial jobless claims fall to 206k, below expectations | December trade deficit widens to $70.3 billion; full year one of the largest deficits since 1960

For the week ending February 14, initial jobless claims in the US were 206k, below the market expectation of 225k. The prior was revised from 227k to 229k. For the week ending February 7, continuing claims in the US were 1.869M, up 17k week-over-week, with the market expectation at 1.86M.

In addition, the US Department of Commerce said that the December trade deficit in goods and services widened to $70.3 billion from the previous month. The full-year trade deficit totaled $901.5 billion, still one of the largest deficits on record since 1960. The US trade deficit in 2024 was $903.5 billion.

===The following is data for February 13, 2026===

US January CPI rises 2.4% year-over-year, below expectations

The US reported January CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, below the market expectation of 2.5%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.2%, also below the market expectation of 0.3%. During the period, core CPI rose 2.5% year-over-year, in line with expectations, and rose 0.3% month-over-month, also in line with market expectations.

===The following is data for February 11, 2026===

The US January unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from December’s 4.4%, below the expected 4.4%. During the period, nonfarm payroll employment added 130k, above the expected 65k. The prior was revised up to 48k.

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It is worth noting that the private sector added as many as 172k positions, but because the government sector reduced 42k jobs, the net addition was only 130k.

At the beginning of President Trump’s second term, a large-scale plan for public servants to leave was introduced. The purpose was to allow employees who do not want to continue working under the Trump administration, or who do not want to accept “return to office” requirements, or who fear being forced into layoffs in the future, to leave in a relatively gentle way, still receiving salary and benefits during the next 6 to 8 months. The relevant list officially left the federal payroll in January.

===The following is data for February 7, 2026===

US December import price index rises 0.1% month-over-month, in line with expectations | December export price index rises 0.3% month-over-month, above expectations

ADP reported that in the week ending January 24, businesses added 6,500 jobs. The US December import price index rose 0.1% month-over-month, in line with expectations. During the period, the export price index rose 0.3% month-over-month, above the expected 0.1%.

US November business inventories rose 0.1% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3% and the prior 0.2%.

===The following is data for February 6, 2026===

February University of Michigan market sentiment preliminary rises to 57.3, above expectations; one-year inflation expectation falls to 3.5%, a 13-month low

The US February University of Michigan market sentiment preliminary was 57.3, a six-month high, above the expected 55, with the prior at 56.4. The one-year inflation expectation preliminary was 3.5%, below the expected and prior 4%, and it hit a new 13-month low. The five-year inflation expectation preliminary was 3.4%, slightly above the expected and prior 3.3%.

===The following is data for February 5, 2026===

US companies lay off 108k people in January, jumping more than 2-fold month-over-month | Weekly initial jobless claims rise to 231k, above expectations

Data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas shows that US companies announced layoffs in January this year surged more than 2-fold month-over-month to 108k. Year-over-year, it also rose nearly 1.2-fold. Initial jobless claims last week were also far above market expectations.

The firm said the number of layoffs in January was the highest for the same period since 2009. Andy Challenger, Chief Revenue Officer at the firm, said that the first quarter typically sees a large number of layoffs, but the large number in January indicates that related plans had already been drawn up by late 2025, reflecting employers’ lack of optimism about the outlook for 2026.

The transportation and logistics sector recorded the highest number of layoffs among industries, at 31k, mainly due to UPS (US: UPS) and Amazon (US: AMZN) terminating their partnership, leading UPS to announce 30k layoffs. In addition, the technology sector also laid off more than 22,000 people in January, most of which came from Amazon. Amazon earlier announced 16k layoffs as part of a restructuring of its management.

Meanwhile, US weekly initial jobless claims rose from 209k to 231k, above the expected 212k. Continuing claims were 212k, below the expected 1.85 million and the prior 1.78M.

===The following is data for February 4, 2026===

December ADP adds 22k, missing expectations; US weekly mortgage applications fall 8.9%

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell from 6.24% to 6.21%, and mortgage applications fell 8.9% last week.

The US released its December ADP report, commonly known as “Little Non-Farm.” Employment increased by 22k during the period, below the expected 45k.

===The following is data for January 31, 2026===

January S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI final rises to 52.4

The January S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI final was 52.4, higher than the preliminary 51.9. The US January ISM manufacturing index was 52.6, above the expected 48.5, with the prior at 47.9. Among components, the prices paid index was 59; new orders rose sharply to 57.1 from a revised 47.4. Employment was 48.1, all higher than the data in December last year.

===The following is data for January 30, 2026===

US December PPI rises 0.5% month-over-month, above expectations | December core PPI rises 0.7% month-over-month

US December PPI rose 0.5% month-over-month, above the expected 0.2%. Core PPI rose 0.7% month-over-month, also above the expected 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, December PPI rose 3%, above the expected 2.8%, and core PPI rose 3.3%, above the expected 2.9%.

===The following is data for January 29, 2026===

US weekly initial jobless claims fall to 209k, below expectations | US November factory orders rise 2.7% month-over-month, beating expectations

US weekly initial jobless claims fell from 210k to 209k, below the expected 205k. Continuing claims were 1.79M, below the expected 1.78M and the prior 1.78M.

The US trade deficit in November widened from October’s $29.2 billion to $56.8 billion, far above the expected $44.5 billion. US November exports fell 3.6% month-over-month, a larger decline than the expected 1.7%, and the prior was revised up to an increase of 3%.

US November imports rose 5% month-over-month, far above the expected 2.3%. US November factory orders rose 2.7% month-over-month, better than the expected 1.6%, with October at a decline of 1.3%.

===The following is data for January 27, 2026===

US consumer confidence at more than 11-year low

The Conference Board’s January consumer confidence index fell sharply to 84.5 from 94.2, below the expected 91, hitting a more than 11-year low.

The November FHFA house price index rose 0.6%, above the expected 0.3%, with the prior at 0.4%.

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Index rose 1.39% year-over-year, above the expected 1.2%, with the prior at 1.32%.

===The following is data for January 23, 2026===

US January S&P manufacturing PMI rebounds to 51.9 | January University of Michigan consumer sentiment index revised up to 56.4; one-year inflation forecast revised down to 4%

The US January S&P manufacturing PMI was 51.9, slightly below the market expectation of 52, but above December’s 51.8. The services PMI for the period held at 52.5, also below the expected 52.9.

The final US January University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised up from the preliminary reading of 54 to 56.4. The final one-year inflation forecast was revised down from 4.2% to 4%.

===The following is data for January 22, 2026===

PCE inflation fully in line with expectations, only 0.2% month-over-month; Q3 GDP revision revised up to 4.4% | Weekly initial jobless claims edge up to 200k

The Fed’s preferred inflation reference indicator showed that the November PCE price index was fully in line with expectations. Overall PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year. Core PCE price index rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year.

The US Q3 GDP revision was revised up from 4.3% to 4.4%.

US weekly initial jobless claims rose slightly to 200k from the previous week’s 199k, below the market expectation of 210k. For continuing claims from the previous week, they fell to 1.849M, below the expected 1.895M.

===The following is data for January 20, 2026===

ADP: US adds 8,000 jobs in one week

ADP reported that for the four weeks ending December 27, businesses added an average of 8,000 jobs per week.

===The following is data for January 15, 2026===

US weekly initial jobless claims fall to 198k

US weekly initial jobless claims fell from 207k to 198k, below the expected 215k. Continuing claims were 1.884M, below the expected 1.899M and the prior 1.903M.

The US January New York Fed manufacturing index rose from -3.7 in December to 7.7, above the market expectation of 1.

===The following is data for January 14, 2026===

The US reported that November PPI rose 3% year-over-year, above the market expectation of 2.7%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.2%, in line with expectations. During the period, core CPI rose 3.5% year-over-year, also above the expected 2.9%. On a monthly basis, it was unchanged, below the expected 0.2%.

US November retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month, above the expected 0.5%.

===The following is data for January 13, 2026===

US December core CPI rises 0.2% month-over-month, below expectations

The US reported that December CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year, in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.3%, also in line with expectations. During the period, core CPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, below the expected 2.7%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%.

===The following is data for January 9, 2026===

US December unemployment rate falls to 4.4% from October’s 4.6%

The US December unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from October’s 4.6%, below the expected 4.5%. During the period, nonfarm payroll employment added 50k, below the expected 70k, and the prior was revised down to 56k.

The US January University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose from 52.9 in December to 54, above the market expectation of 53.5.

===The following is data for January 8, 2026===

US weekly initial jobless claims rebound to 208k

US weekly initial jobless claims rose from 200k to 208k, below the expected 212k. Continuing claims were 1.914M, above the expected 1.90M and the prior 1.858M.

The US trade deficit in October narrowed sharply to $29.4 billion, below the market expectation of $58.7 billion, with the prior at $48.1 billion.

Data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas shows that US companies announced layoffs in December fell 50% month-over-month to 35k, and were down 8% year-over-year.

The firm said total corporate layoffs in 2025 were 115k, up 58% year-over-year, the highest since 2020. However, the firm’s Chief Revenue Officer Andy Challenger noted that the number of layoff plans announced in December was the lowest of the year. “Although December is typically a slow month, considering the increase in hiring plans, it is a positive signal after the layoffs wave.”

Layoffs in the government sector accounted for the largest share among industries, at 308k people, up 7 times year-over-year, mainly concentrated in the federal government. However, the layoff wave was concentrated in the first quarter of the year; over the nine months from the second quarter to the fourth quarter, government layoffs were less than 29k.

Among private enterprises, the technology sector had the highest number of layoffs last year, at 154k, up 15% year-over-year. The firm said that over-hiring over the past decade, combined with other factors, and the speed of AI (Artificial Intelligence) transformation far exceeding that of other industries, led to a wave of unemployment in the sector.

===The following is data for January 7, 2026===

The US released its December ADP data, commonly known as “Little Non-Farm.” Employment increased by 41k during the period, below the expected 50k. The November data was revised from a decrease of 32k to a decrease of 29k.

===The following is data for January 5, 2026===

US December ISM manufacturing index underperforms expectations

The US December ISM manufacturing index was 47.9, below the expected 48.4, with the prior at 48.2. Among components, the new orders index was 47.7, the employment index was 44.9, and the prices index was 58.5.