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Non-Farm Payrolls Disappoint, Market Expects Rate Hike Delayed Until Year-End

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On July 2, U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed a significant slowdown in hiring activity despite a decrease in the unemployment rate, which dampened the momentum of employment growth seen earlier this year. According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, non-farm employment increased by 57,000 in June, after a downward revision of 74,000 to the previous two months' data (market expectation was 110,000). The decline in the unemployment rate was due to a significant drop in the labor force participation rate—when the participation rate decreases, it indicates that some individuals have exited the labor market (such as giving up job searching, retiring early, or returning to school). These individuals are no longer counted in the 'unemployed' category and are also not part of the 'labor force,' leading to a decrease in the unemployment rate. Following the data release, spot gold prices surged briefly, and the market reduced its bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike. The market has fully priced in expectations for a rate hike in December, which was previously anticipated for October.
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