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Portugal might crash, but I favor Croatia to win -- Little Wealth God's World Cup Betting Diary 🔥

I previously said that Belgium and Portugal are the most disappointing strong teams of this tournament. Belgium miraculously turned things around yesterday and narrowly advanced. Tomorrow, 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo faces 40-year-old Luka Modric — this is the last dance for two Ballon d'Or winners on the World Cup stage.

Everyone is betting against Croatia, and everyone is backing Portugal. But Little Wealth God wants to sing a different tune: ‌Croatia will have the last laugh.

1. Tournament DNA: The Checkered Ones are a species born for knockout stages

Remember a cold fact: ‌In the last two World Cups, Croatia has one runner-up and one third place. ‌In 2018 they reached the final, and in 2022 they won bronze again.

This small country with a population of only 4 million has shown resilience in World Cup knockout matches that ranks as one of the greatest comeback stories in football history.

As for Portugal? ‌They have been eliminated in the round of 16 in two consecutive World Cups. ‌In 2018 they lost 1-2 to Uruguay, and in 2022 they lost 0-1 to Morocco.

Martinez's team seems cursed as soon as they enter the knockout stage.

You can call it a coincidence, but if it happens twice, it's no longer a coincidence — it's fate.

2. Modric isn't old yet; he's just waiting for this moment

In the final group stage match against Ghana, in the 83rd minute, Modric took a corner kick, and Vlasic scored a header winner — ‌2:1, Croatia reversed the game and advanced. ‌The 40-year-old Magician delivered the most lethal touch at the most critical moment.

You say he is old? His running stats may not be what they used to be, but his brain, his rhythm, and his composure in crucial moments are irreplaceable by any young player.

‌Knockout matches are not about who runs faster, but who doesn't make mistakes under pressure. ‌And Modric is precisely the midfield maestro on this planet who is least likely to make mistakes under pressure.

3. Set Pieces: Croatia's nuclear-level secret weapon

A heavily underestimated statistic: ‌In this World Cup, set-piece goals account for 40% of Croatia's total goals. ‌Modric's corners and free kicks are the Sword of Damocles hanging over the opponent's head.

Portugal's defense relies on Ruben Dias, but facing Modric's centimeter-perfect crosses, height is not everything.

Remember the 2016 Euro round of 16? The game was deadlocked 0-0 until extra time, and finally Quaresma scored a rebound winner — ‌in that match, Croatia was not inferior in regular time at all. ‌This time, they have an even better chance.

4. Livakovic: The Devil on the Penalty Line

If the match goes to a penalty shootout, Croatia has already won half the battle. ‌Livakovic is one of the most fearsome penalty-saving goalkeepers in World Cup history. ‌In the 2022 World Cup round of 16 against Japan and quarterfinal against Brazil, he saved penalties consecutively, directly sending Croatia to the semifinals.

What about Portugal? Their goalkeeper Diogo Costa has performed well, but in a pure psychological battle like a penalty shootout, Livakovic's experience is on a crushing level.

5. Portugal's weaknesses are more than you think

Don't be fooled by the total squad value of 1.01 billion euros.

‌In the final group stage match, they drew 0-0 with Colombia, squeezing through as group runners-up, and their attacking efficiency is worrying;

‌Ronaldo has indeed scored in six consecutive World Cups, but at 41, his stamina and dribbling ability are running on empty in the high-intensity knockout matches;

Portugal has faced Croatia in knockout stages of major international tournaments five times in the past, ‌winning only twice, with the most recent being a hard-fought penalty shootout win at Euro 2020;

Martinez's team lacks the ability to break down a set defense, and Croatia's 4-2-3-1 counter-attacking system is exactly the type that Portugal finds most troublesome.