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How should I put it?
Low employment means the economy is finally having problems, which implies the possibility of a recession.
But the possibility of a recession also implies the possibility of rate cuts.
Therefore, there will definitely be two directional interpretations in the market.
My understanding is:
Inflation is real and sticky. The economic recession is real, but less critical compared to inflation.
Stock market speculators will be relieved by the weakening expectation of rate hikes, and stocks and other risk assets will rebound in the short term.
But the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government should understand that inflation is a more serious issue than a recession. Inflation directly damages the position of the U.S. dollar, while a recession is a problem that can be solved more economically rather than monetarily.
Except for one scenario: Trump follows the example of the 1980s and creates Nixon Boom 2.0.
The consequence would be Bernanke raising rates to 20%.
Either suppress inflation now, or pay an extremely painful price a year later.
I will not gamble.
If the price is not low enough, I will not buy.
We may usher in Nixon Boom 2.0: the Trump Boom. If so, I will buy after this boom.
I do not judge the path, because it is a matter of probability. I judge the endgame of prices, because it is a matter of necessity.