Bitcoin Evening Market Analysis for July 2

Tonight's non-farm payrolls are the core short-term turning point.

The market predicts a higher probability of a rate hike in September, U.S. bond yields remain high, and the non-yielding Bitcoin continues to be suppressed by tightening liquidity.

Previously, ADP data fell short of expectations, coupled with dovish remarks from officials, the price rebounded from the low of 57700. This round is only a short-term repair after digesting bearish factors, not a reversal of the bullish trend.

Non-farm payrolls will directly determine the market direction: strong data will heat up rate hike expectations, leading to a decline after a spike; weak data will heat up rate cut expectations, leading to a bullish market.

After spiking to 61300 in the early morning, it quickly pulled back. Resistance above is heavy, and bullish momentum is waning. The current price is under pressure at the upper Bollinger Band, and a slight rally will trigger profit-taking selling pressure.

The four-hour indicators maintain a golden cross, showing short-term oscillating strength, but there is concentrated trapped positions above, making it difficult to sustain a large rally.

Trading idea: short in batches at 61400-61900 before the data, targets 60000, 59000
Data-driven market volatility is intense; be sure to use light positions with stop losses, and strictly control position size#btc