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Thursday evening market update. Since it’s Thursday, let’s do a quick review of the market.
Overall, today’s intraday price action has remained range-bound. From the morning to around 59,500, price pushed upward to around 61,100; then in the afternoon it pulled back to around 60,100 and once again rebounded to around 61,400. Tonight, the highly anticipated Non-Farm payrolls release is coming, so market volatility will be high. Prices will swing back and forth, washing positions. No matter whether you have a good grip on the market or not, be sure to strictly watch risk management and focus on defensive controls.
The following is only my personal observation of the market chart; this is purely for technical discussion and does not constitute any buy or sell advice:
Macroeconomic news: Ahead of the Monday data, and yesterday’s ADP employment report (the “small Non-Farm”), both came in as a surprise, below expectations. Overall, U.S. inflation has eased somewhat, which is positive for the market. As a leading indicator for the Non-Farm payrolls, tonight’s Non-Farm data will most likely come in below expectations and could also be in line with expectations. Likewise, if it comes in above expectations, it will be bearish. Also, pay attention to whether wages come in above expectations. Then, make an overall judgment based on the market’s price action. Second, also focus on how turmoil in the peripheral regions brings market volatility.
Market data: At present, the daily chart shows increased bullish momentum with two consecutive bullish candles. The trend is gradually moving upward toward the middle rail. On the four-hour timeframe, the momentum is increasing and price is running above the upper rail. On the one-hour timeframe, price is forming a wedge-like rising pattern.
Focus on resistance above in the 61,700–62,400 area. If there is a strong breakout, watch around 63,200. Below, the key focus is on volatility in the 60,500–61,400 range.
Below support is 60,600–60,000. If there is a strong breakdown, watch the 59,500–59,000 range.
For upper pressure, watch around 1665–1685. For lower support, watch around 1615–1585–1545.
When the market fluctuates, the “dots” move better than the “arrows”—you can go for dots first, then arrows. If the resistance above is not broken through, you can also plan for an arrow position at higher levels.
The market is ruthless; in the world, there is love. This content is Good Luck Lai’s personal learning review and recap—purely my own discussion of the market. It does not constitute any investment advice. Before you take action, be sure to make a plan and manage risk. View market fluctuations rationally.