Analysis Object: XAUUSD ‌4-hour Level Market

Core Event: Impact of June Nonfarm Payrolls Data (released at 8:30 PM that evening) on Gold Price

I. Three Scenarios for Nonfarm Payrolls Data Pre-Judgment

1. Scenario 1: Data ≤ 110k (meeting or below expectations)
​
- Directly bullish for gold, gold price will rise directly.
​
2. Scenario 2: 110k < Data < 172k (above expectations but below previous value)
​
- Gold price first falls then rises, ultimately closing with an increase.
​
3. Scenario 3: Data > 172k (strongly exceeds expectations)
​
- Significantly bearish for gold, gold price will decline.

Overall Judgment: The first two scenarios have higher probability; the data is slightly bullish for gold price.

II. Key Technical Levels

- Upper Resistance: 4120 (core strong resistance). If the 9 PM close firmly holds above 4120, the upside target is the 4200-4250 range; if it breaks through 4120, the daily level can target the 4260-4270 area.
​
- Lower Support: 4020 (core strong support). If 4020 is lost, the short-term will test the 3960-3940 range; if it breaks below 3940, gold price may accelerate downward to below 3900.
​
- Current Status: Gold price is oscillating in the 4020-4120 range, awaiting direction after the data release.

III. Core Logic

- Fundamental: Weak nonfarm payrolls data will strengthen expectations of a Fed rate cut, bullish for gold; strong data will suppress rate cut expectations, bearish for gold.
​
- Technical: 4120 and 4020 are the bull-bear dividing lines. Pay close attention to whether gold price breaks these two levels after the data release.

Risk Warning: The above is personal opinion and does not constitute trading advice. The market carries risks; invest with caution.
$XAUUSD ‌