The unexpected difference in the express delivery industry: a month-on-month decline in unit price does not mean that the anti-involution has failed. YTO's better-than-expected financial report vindicates the industry.

1. What Happened? — YTO Express's Half-Year Report Validates the Profit Recovery Logic of the Industry

On June 30, 2026, YTO Express released its half-year performance forecast, expecting to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.1 billion to RMB 3.4 billion in the first half of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 69.34% to 85.73%; non-recurring net profit is expected to be RMB 3.04 billion to RMB 3.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 72.19% to 89.18%.

Based on this calculation, the net profit for the second quarter is approximately RMB 1.72B to RMB 2.02B, an increase of 25% to 46% compared to RMB 1.38B in the first quarter. Taking the midpoint of RMB 3.25 billion, the net profit per parcel attributable to the parent company in the second quarter is about RMB 0.22, an increase of RMB 0.04 from the first quarter. This performance significantly exceeded the market's relatively pessimistic expectations based on the price decline from April to May.

The reasons for YTO's outperformance can be understood from two levels:

First, the industry's "anti-involution" policies continue to take effect, improving the pricing environment. In its performance forecast, YTO clearly stated that during the reporting period, the industry continued to implement measures against involution, competition order gradually improved, terminal prices were reasonably adjusted, and the industry's operating environment marginally improved. Since the beginning of 2026, the Central Economic Work Conference has listed "thoroughly rectifying 'involution-style' competition" as one of the annual key tasks. The State Post Bureau has also explicitly proposed in-depth rectification of the industry's "involution-style" competition. Since the start of the year, multiple provinces have successively issued and continuously implemented relevant measures, further regulating market order.

Second, the company's own cost reduction and efficiency improvement have achieved significant results. In recent years, YTO has comprehensively promoted AI transformation, deepened the vertical application of cutting-edge technology in express logistics, and promoted the deep integration of AI applications with organizational management and business scenarios, improving the operational efficiency of the entire chain in multiple dimensions, and reducing comprehensive costs in trunk line transportation, transit operations, and last-mile fulfillment. YTO's AI cost reduction has spilled over from headquarters efficiency improvements to the franchise network, modeling and standardizing the excellent management capabilities of the headquarters and replicating them across the network. This cost reduction ability enables the company to maintain price competitiveness while still achieving continuous improvement in profit per parcel.

2. Why Is It Important? — The Underlying Expectation Gap Behind the Sector's Continued Weakness

1. Why is the e-commerce express delivery sector continuing to weaken?

Since May 2026, the e-commerce express delivery sector has experienced a continuous and deep adjustment. As of June 29, the Wind Express Index fell by up to 23% from its peak on May 8, significantly underperforming the CSI 300 Index. The core reasons for the continued weakness of the sector can be broken down into the following three aspects:

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