【转】贝莱德（BlackRock）似乎仍在积极抛售 ETF 持仓，与此同时，链上比特币交易数据持续显示有大量 BTC 流向交易所。

在我看来，这表明市场供应正以受控方式释放，可能采用了 TWAP（时间加权平均价格）式的抛售策略。当前市场结构令人担忧的一点在于，尽管存在这种抛售压力，我们尚未看到价格出现大幅下跌。但这并不意味着风险已消除，可能仅仅意味着目前的压力暂时被市场消化了。

我认为，一旦做市商允许波动率放大，且散户仓位过度偏向多头，市场可能会迎来更剧烈的行情波动。目前，许多市场参与者似乎试图在每次回调时买入，反复尝试“接飞刀”却屡屡受挫，因为市场仍在持续走弱。

对于比特币整体市场结构，我仍持谨慎和看跌态度。目前的交易区间正是比特币在 2024 年大部分时间里横盘震荡的区域。回顾当时，BTC 曾在大约 12 小时内从 59,000 美元左右急跌至 49,000 美元。

类似的情况仍有可能重演：即经历长时间的横盘派发后，一旦多头仓位过于拥挤且市场参与者对下行加速缺乏准备，便引发剧烈的抛售。

如果市场开始显现出更明确的看涨信号，我会重新评估市场结构，并寻找机会在更理想的点位增加空头仓位。然而，就现阶段而言，我并未看到任何强有力的理由预期市场会出现大幅上涨。

因此，在情况发生变化之前，我继续认为该市场风险较高且看跌。

BlackRock appears to remain active on the ETF selling side, while on chain Bitcoin transaction data continues to show significant BTC flows moving toward exchanges.

In my view, this suggests that supply is being distributed into the market in a controlled manner, potentially through TWAP style selling. What makes the current structure concerning is that despite this selling pressure, we have not yet seen a significant downside move. That does not mean the risk is gone it may simply mean that the pressure is being absorbed for now.

The larger move, in my opinion, could come once market makers allow volatility to expand and retail positioning becomes overly exposed to longs. At the moment, many market participants appear to be trying to buy every dip, repeatedly attempting to “catch a falling knife” and failing as the market continues to weaken.

I remain cautious and negative on the broader Bitcoin market structure. We are currently trading in a zone where Bitcoin spent almost an entire year moving sideways in 2024. During that period, BTC eventually dropped from around $59,000 to $49,000 within approximately 12 hours.

A similar scenario remains possible: extended sideways distribution, followed by a sharp and aggressive sell off once long positioning becomes too crowded and market participants are no longer prepared for downside acceleration.

If the market starts to show clearer bullish signals, I will reassess the structure and look for new opportunities to increase my short positions at more attractive levels. However, at this stage, I currently see no strong reason to expect a significant upside move.

For that reason, I continue to view the market as high risk and bearish until proven otherwise.