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I conducted an extreme stress test on Strategy for three years, and the result is...
Author: Adam Livingston, Crypto Analyst; Translation: @金色财经xz
I ran an absolutely brutal three-year stress test on Strategy.
Not the gentle version. But the kind where "Bitcoin crashes 55% from here, mNAV collapses below 0.5x, capital markets slam shut, cash is burned through, BTC is forced to be sold to repay senior claims, and everyone on X (formerly Twitter) is celebrating into their makeup mirror."
Starting point:
Bitcoin Price: $59,135
MSTR Stock Price: $87.64
Total BTC Holdings: 847,363 BTC
Cash Reserves: $1.4 billion
CEBE (Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure): 138,161 sats/share
Debt Ratio: 41.5%
Then the model violently crashes BTC to $26,611 in month 6.
When collateral collapses, the fixed-dollar-denominated debt layer reveals its intrinsic characteristic—its scale in BTC terms expands sharply.
BTC equivalent of senior claims jumps from 351,567 to 819,073 BTC.
Debt ratio skyrockets from 41.5% to 96.7%.
BTC holdings attributable to common equity collapses from 495,796 to 28,290 BTC.
CEBE gets crushed:
From 138,161 sats/share to 7,884 sats/share.
The model shows Strategy's stock price going from $87.64 to $1.01.
Now that’s real horror. Would the stock really go that low in such an extreme scenario? I doubt it. During the 2022 bear market, common equity sats exposure went as negative as -14,000+, but the stock never fell below $10.
But here’s the unsettling bearish scenario.
The model assumes:
Zero new BTC purchases, zero common stock issuance.
Monthly expense obligation: $167.7 million.
Cash reserves exhausted in month 9.
After cash runs dry, BTC sales begin.
Over three years, Strategy must sell 115,727 BTC to keep the entire capital structure solvent. That’s real damage.
But even then, it still ends with 731,636 BTC.
Final state:
Bitcoin Price: $48,498
MSTR Stock Price: $51.86
mNAV: 1.40x
Common equity BTC holdings: 274,093 BTC
CEBE: 76,380 sats/share
Debt Ratio: 62.5%
Strategy survives. Common equity goes through an 18-month hell, but it survives.
The real risk isn’t the "instant bankruptcy" that FUD spreaders talk about.
The real risk is: when fixed-dollar-denominated senior debt temporarily consumes almost the entire Bitcoin stack (in BTC equivalent), CEBE (common equity BTC equity) gets extremely compressed.
"Survival" doesn't mean "comfort."
So, does that mean Strategy will "death spiral"? The model says no.