How will tonight's nonfarm payrolls affect Bitcoin's price movement?

Considering the recent market environment, I am actually more inclined to view the first wave of movement after tonight's nonfarm payrolls release as bearish.

There are three main reasons:
1. The market has already priced in rate cut expectations. If the nonfarm payrolls data is slightly stronger than expected, it can easily trigger a cooling of rate cut expectations, forming a bearish realization.
2. After Bitcoin's recent rebound, selling pressure remains above. There is a lack of willingness to chase gains at higher levels, making it easier for the price to undergo a data-driven shakeout.
3. Institutions are generally cautious before major data releases. If the nonfarm payrolls are strong, the US dollar and Treasury yields may rise, and risk assets are likely to come under pressure first.

Tonight's prediction (personal opinion)
Direction: initially declines, then a repair move. Probability of decline: 65%-70%
Probability of increase: 30%-35%
It is expected that after the data release, Bitcoin will likely first experience a rapid pullback to wash out long leverage. Then, depending on the details of the data, especially the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, it will decide whether to stabilize and rebound.

Trading Strategy

If nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations (strongly bearish)
The first wave is expected to be bearish for Bitcoin; you can follow the trend for a pullback. If key support is broken, the bearish trend may continue further.

If nonfarm payrolls are lower than expected (bullish)
It is likely to rally, but be wary of a "buy the rumor, sell the news" high-to-low reversal. It is not recommended to chase highs.

Summary in one sentence:
Tonight, I favor a "first decline, then stabilize" pattern. Approach with a generally bearish mindset. Focus on the first wave of sell-off after the data release. Wait for confirmation of direction before following, and avoid chasing immediately.

The above is only a probability judgment based on the current market environment, not a definitive prediction. The final movement will still depend on the combined performance of the three data points: nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings.
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