After the second bottom test and rebound, the tug-of-war between bulls and bears intensifies: Nonfarm payrolls become the key variable — In-depth trading strategy analysis for BTC/ETH on July 2

In early July 2026, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to around $61,300 after a second bottom test, while Ethereum recovered to the $1,640 range. However, the market remains in a state of extreme fear (Fear and Greed Index at just 11), and at the end of June, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $223 million, indicating cautious institutional capital sentiment. Tonight at 8:30 PM ET, the release of U.S. nonfarm payroll data will become the core variable determining short-term direction. This article provides an in-depth analysis of key price levels and trading strategies for BTC and ETH from three dimensions: technicals, capital flows, and macro environment.

I. Current Market Situation: Concerns Behind the Rebound

Yesterday (July 1), both Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a rapid rebound after a second bottom test. Bitcoin surged to $61,300, while Ethereum recovered to around $1,640. On the surface, this appears to be a typical technical rebound, but deeper analysis reveals that the market's upward momentum is not flawless.

From a sentiment perspective, the current Fear and Greed Index is only 11, in the "extreme fear" range. This means that despite the price rebound, market sentiment remains extremely fragile, and any negative news could trigger a new wave of selling. CoinCodex data shows that Bitcoin's 14-day RSI is 37.21, in a neutral-to-bearish zone, with the 50-day moving average (around $68,148) and the 200-day moving average (around $75,245) both above the current price, forming a clear bearish alignment. As long as Bitcoin fails to break and hold above $64,000, downside risks remain high.

More noteworthy is capital flow. On June 30, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $222.64 million, with Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple ETFs also experiencing capital withdrawals. This marked the most cautious day for institutional investors since the second half of 2026. ETF flows are often considered a bellwether for "smart money," and consecutive outflows suggest limited institutional approval of current price levels, with a wait-and-see attitude likely in the short term.

II. Technical Analysis: Logic of Key Price Level Battles

Bitcoin (BTC): $60k is the bulls/bears dividing line

From the daily chart, Bitcoin is currently trading in a narrow range of $60,000–$63,000. This range is precisely a key support zone tested multiple times since August 2024 and the most important psychological threshold in the current macro bull cycle.

Upper resistance:

The $62,200–$62,800 range forms the first strong resistance zone. This area is not only the middle band of the daily Bollinger Bands but also a dense trading zone where multiple previous rebounds stalled. If tonight's nonfarm payroll data is positive, Bitcoin may test this area. However, shorting at the first touch offers a high probability of success, with a stop-loss set at $63,200. If it unexpectedly breaks $63,200, it would mean the bearish structure is invalidated, with the next target near $63,700. At that point, wait for a second test before placing a short order.

Lower support:

$60,000 is a line that must not be lost. This level is not only a psychological integer threshold but also a strong support level validated multiple times since August 2024. If negative nonfarm data causes a rapid decline, the $59,800–$60,000 range is an excellent entry point for long positions, with a stop-loss at $59,300 and first target at $61,500, second target at $60,800. If $59,300 is effectively broken, be cautious of a deeper correction, with strong support below at $59,300 and around $58,500.

Ethereum (ETH): Increased volatility, weaker structure

Ethereum's recent performance has been notably weaker than Bitcoin's, with significantly higher volatility. The current price is around $1,640, with room to key resistance at $1,668 and $1,688.

Upper resistance:

$1,668 and $1,688 are two key resistance levels for ETH. $1,668 is where multiple previous rebounds stalled. Shorting at the first touch offers a reasonable risk-reward ratio, with a stop-loss at $1,710 and profit targets at $1,650 and $1,630. If it breaks $1,710, it would mean the short-term bearish structure is invalidated, requiring a reassessment of direction.

Lower support:

$1,608 and $1,585 are two key support levels for ETH. $1,608 is near the previous low and has some support strength. You can lightly go long at this level, with a stop-loss at $1,575 and profit targets at $1,630 and $1,660. If $1,575 is effectively broken, the downside space will open up, and be cautious of a further decline toward the $1,500 range.

III. Macro Variables: How Nonfarm Payrolls Affect the Crypto Market

Tonight at 8:30 PM ET, the U.S. Department of Labor will release June nonfarm payroll data. The impact of this data on the crypto market primarily follows two paths:

Path One: Strong Data (Bearish)

If nonfarm payrolls significantly exceed expectations and the unemployment rate drops, the market will strengthen expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates or even raise them further. The dollar will strengthen, risk assets will come under pressure, and Bitcoin and Ethereum could quickly test key support levels. At this point, strictly follow stop-loss discipline to avoid holding losing positions.

Path Two: Weak Data (Bullish)

If nonfarm payrolls fall short of expectations and the unemployment rate rises, the market will reprice expectations of a Fed rate cut. The dollar will weaken, liquidity expectations will improve, and Bitcoin could test the $62,200–$62,800 resistance range, while Ethereum may test $1,668 and $1,688. However, note that even if the data is positive, if ETF outflows continue, the rebound may be limited.

It is particularly important to point out that the Fed's interest rate control mechanism has undergone significant changes. According to prior information, at the December 2025 FOMC meeting, the Fed removed the $500 billion daily cap on the Standing Repo Facility (SRP), allowing banks to borrow unlimited amounts from the Fed using Treasury bonds as collateral. This policy has significantly increased market liquidity, theoretically a long-term positive for risk assets. However, in a high-interest-rate environment, the short-term effect of looser liquidity may be masked by macro data volatility.

IV. Trading Strategies and Risk Control Suggestions

Based on the above analysis, today's trading strategy should revolve around the nonfarm data, with the core principle: "light positions before data, follow the trend after data."

Bitcoin (BTC) Strategy:

• Short: Short in the $62,200–$62,800 range, stop-loss at $63,200, take profit at $61,500 / $60,800. If it breaks $63,200, wait to short again near $63,700, stop-loss at $64,300.

• Long: Go long in the $59,800–$60,000 range, stop-loss at $59,300, take profit at $60,500 / $60,800.

Ethereum (ETH) Strategy:

• Short: Short at the first touch of $1,668, stop-loss at $1,710, take profit at $1,650 / $1,630.

• Long: Go long near $1,608, stop-loss at $1,575, take profit at $1,630 / $1,660.

Risk Control Points:

1. Before the nonfarm data release (before 8:30 PM ET), it is recommended to keep positions within 20% of total capital to avoid uncontrollable risks from data volatility.

2. After the data release, if the price quickly breaks a key level, do not rush to chase. Wait for 5–15 minute candle confirmation of direction before entering.

3. Strictly implement stop-losses, especially for ETH, whose volatility is higher than BTC; stop-loss space should be appropriately widened.

4. Monitor ETF flows. If outflows continue even after the data release, even if prices rebound, be cautious of a "bull trap."

V. Long-Term Perspective: Macro Bull Cycle Intact, but Patience Needed in Short Term

From a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin's journey from $61,000 in August 2024 to the all-time high of $126,018 in October 2025, and then to the correction in early 2026, forms a complete macro bull cycle. The current price level (around $61,000) is right near the starting point of this cycle. According to cycle theory, this is an important support area.

But a bull market does not mean rising every day. In a macro environment of high interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and cautious institutional capital, the market needs time to digest negative news and find a new equilibrium price. For traders, short-term volatility is both a risk and an opportunity. The key lies in whether you can be at the right position, with reasonable position size, and strict discipline.

Tonight's nonfarm data may be the domino that breaks the current stalemate. Wishing everyone smooth trading. Risk control first.

Disclaimer: This article is only a market analysis and technical discussion, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please make decisions carefully based on your own risk tolerance.

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