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1️⃣ The fundraising structure of Phase III of the Big Fund shows: Ministry of Finance 60 billion (17%), China Development Bank Financial 36 billion (11%), Shanghai Guosheng 30 billion (9%), each of the four major banks 21.5 billion, with diversified funding from national credit + policy-based finance + local governments + commercial banks, making the funding sources more systematic.
2️⃣ The biggest difference from the semiconductor market cycle of 2020-2021 is the "upward shift" in policy, moving from end-chip substitution to bottleneck areas such as equipment/materials/EDA, with larger funding amounts, longer cycles, and stronger targeting.
3️⃣ The domestic substitution rate for end chips has improved (some areas >50-70%), but the domestic substitution rate for equipment/materials/EDA is extremely low (lithography <1%, metrology/inspection <10%, coating/developing in single digits, ion implantation <10%, EDA only 12.3%), and the incremental space for filling gaps is far larger than that for already-substituted areas.