Tonight, just focus on two sets of data:


The non-farm payrolls expectation is roughly 100k, and the unemployment rate expectation is 4.2%.
If non-farm payrolls are above 150k, it means U.S. employment is still strong, rate cut expectations are likely to be pushed back, which is bearish for the crypto space.
If non-farm payrolls are between 80k and 120k, it's basically in line with expectations, and the market will probably first look at the unemployment rate and the revision of prior data.
If non-farm payrolls are below 70k, it means employment is starting to cool noticeably, but this doesn't necessarily directly benefit risk assets—it also depends on whether the market will trade recession first.
On the other side, the more critical factor is the unemployment rate:
If above 4.2%, the market will start to worry about a weakening economy.
If at 4.2%, neutral.
If below 4.2%, it means employment is still pretty stable, and rate cut expectations will instead be pushed back.
In one sentence: The most comfortable outcome for the market tonight would be non-farm payrolls around 100k and an unemployment rate of 4.2%.
Too strong is not good, and too weak is not good either.
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • Comment
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
Add a comment
Add a comment
No comments
  • Pinned