BTC back above 61,000, but ETFs see continuous outflows—has the trend really reversed?

Today, Bitcoin has climbed back to around $61,300, and ETH has also returned above $1,640. After days of consecutive corrections, the market has finally seen a decent rebound.

Many people are starting to shout that the bull market is back.

But based on the data, I think it's too early to jump to conclusions.

First, Price Rises, but ETFs See Continuous Outflows

The most noteworthy thing today is not the price, but the ETF data.

The screenshot shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have remained net outflowing over the past few trading days, and funds haven't flowed back in with the price increase.

What does this mean?

It means that the current price increase is not driven by sustained ETF buying, but more likely by:

Short covering;
Active buying by on-exchange funds;
Some leveraged funds pushing the price up.

Therefore, although this rally has momentum, the capital structure hasn't fully improved yet.

Second, Open Interest Has Increased Significantly

From the open interest data, the total market BTC open interest has rebounded to about 780k BTC.

As the price rises, open interest also increases.

This means:

It's not purely a rise caused by short covering; instead, new funds are beginning to re-enter the market.

This is a positive signal.

However, it also means market leverage is increasing.

If the subsequent rally lacks strength, high leverage could also bring a rapid pullback.

Third, Funding Rates Are Starting to Warm Up

Today, the funding rates on major exchanges have noticeably increased compared to yesterday.

BTC has returned to positive funding rates.

ETH's funding rates on some platforms have also turned positive.

This indicates that market bullish sentiment is recovering.

However, the current funding rates are still not in extreme territory, so we don't see severe overheating yet.

Fourth, How Does the Technical Picture Look?

On the 4-hour timeframe, BTC has broken through the consolidation range of the past few days.

The MACD has formed a golden cross again.

Volume has increased compared to a few days ago.

Short-term bulls have regained the initiative.

However, there are still overhead supply zones from previous positions.

If trading volume cannot continue to increase in the following days, then this rally looks more like a corrective move rather than a trend breakout.

Lulu's View

The biggest contradiction today is:

Price rises, but ETFs are still outflows.

Therefore, I prefer to define this as a corrective rebound rather than a confirmation of a new upward trend.

What truly matters in the next two to three trading days is:

Whether ETF flows turn net positive again;
Whether open interest continues to increase;
Whether funding rates remain healthy;
Whether BTC can firmly hold above $61,000.

If these data improve simultaneously, then the market has a better chance of sustained upward movement.

If prices rise while funds continue to outflow, we need to be cautious about the risk of a pullback after the spike.

📌 Today's Focus

BTC: Focus on support around $61,000–$61,500.

ETH: Watch whether it can break further above the $1,650 area.

ETF flows remain the most important observation indicator for the coming days.

🐷 Lulu's Summary

A true bull market is not just about rising prices, but about capital willing to keep buying. Prices can deceive, but capital often does not. — Lulu's Take #btc $BTC