$60,000 for $BTC —did you cut your losses?

ETF outflows have continued for 6 months, yet the big players are quietly picking up the bottom. A strong rebound from 57k to 60k—do you think it’s just a technical bounce? On-chain data tells you what the smart money is doing: they’re doing something that will make retail traders break down—adding positions against the trend.
First: The ETFs are selling, but long-term holders are buying—who’s right and who’s wrong?
In June, the net outflow of BTC spot ETFs exceeded $400 million. Institutions are moving—right?
Yes, but that’s only half.
The other half: long-term holders have switched back to net accumulation. When the MVRV ratio falls to around 1.2, historical data says this thing is the bottom zone. Those old-timers who’ve lived through bull and bear markets are silently accumulating under 60k.
Second: What you’re seeing is a head-and-shoulders top; what I’m seeing is a bear-market trap.
On the weekly chart: the head-and-shoulders formation is in place, and the neckline has already been broken—targets point lower, so the bears are celebrating.
But take a closer look at the momentum indicator—
Price makes a new low, yet RSI doesn’t. Bullish divergence.
The 57k–59k area is near the 21-month low—the core demand zone since the halving. A rebound from this level is never a coincidence. The daily chart may form a double bottom/W bottom; RSI recovers from oversold, and the MACD golden cross is gathering momentum.
In a bear market, is this just a technical rebound—or the first step of a trend reversal?
The answer is: $62,000. If it breaks and holds 62k on increased volume, the bearish structure is basically dead. If it can’t hold, expect more consolidation.
Third: Macro “high inflation”—is it bad for BTC or good?
In May, CPI year-over-year surged to 4.2%, core CPI hit 2.9%, energy shocks pushed oil prices up—sounds like all bad news, right?
Warsh’s latest remarks: “inflation risks have decreased,” and market interpretation leans dovish. The jobs data looks soft, and rate-cut expectations are heating up again. Once the liquidity turning point is confirmed, who has the biggest upside elasticity among risk assets?
Not gold—it's BTC.
Key levels
Resistance overhead: 62,000 → 64,000–65,00 → 70,000+
Support below: 57,000–59,000 (a solid floor; if it breaks, you could see 55k or even lower)
For short-term traders:
Slightly bullish, but don’t go heavy. Buy in batches on pullbacks at 58.5k–59.5k, or chase after a breakout and confirmation at 61.5k–62k. Set a stop loss below 56.8k. Take half off at 62k first, then sell the other half at 65k. R:R at least 1:2, favorable risk-reward.
For long-term believers:
In the 57k–60k range, just DCA with your eyes closed. This is the high-quality accumulation/add-on zone in the post-halving cycle. Once the macro improves (rate cuts land + ETF inflows return), 80k–100k isn’t a dream.
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