Today, BTC has reclaimed the $60,000 level, but oddly I’m less optimistic than I was yesterday.

When many people see the price regain an integer mark, they start shouting “reversal.” The first thing I did this morning wasn’t to open BTC—it was to check ETF fund flows and the U.S. Dollar Index, because I wanted to know whether this rally is driven by real buying, or whether it’s just short-covering.

The answer makes me a bit hesitant.

Last night, U.S. spot BTC ETFs again saw net outflows of nearly $300 million, and the outflow state has been maintained for several consecutive days. Institutional capital hasn’t returned just because the price has come back to $60,000.

But the order book is sending another signal.

The bearish factor is still there, yet the price can still reclaim the area around $60,000. This suggests that at least some funds are starting to be willing to pick up the coins. Otherwise, following last week’s rhythm, once this kind of news came out, BTC should have kept getting pushed down—not slowly recovered.

Today, I’ve been fixating on one detail.

Every time the price moves above $60,000, the aggressive buy-side isn’t particularly strong, but the shorts also aren’t pushing down as crazily as they did in the past few days. This feels more like both sides are probing each other, and neither is willing to show their full hand first.

So the easiest mistake to make today is to see the price reclaim $60,000 and assume a new round of upside has already started.

In my view, it’s more like the market is confirming whether this is truly a breakout—or just a bounce after shorts have covered.

If it’s a genuine breakout, tonight the U.S. and European sessions should continue to see rising volume, take out yesterday’s high, and force the people chasing shorts to cut losses. If tonight the volume shrinks again and the price falls back below $60,000, then this rally is most likely just an emotional correction, and the trend hasn’t changed.

Today, I won’t change my plan because of a single green candle, and I also won’t keep chasing shorts just because bearish news has been coming in for several days.

I’d rather wait for the U.S. and European sessions to give the answer.

If the price holds tonight, I’ll start re-examining whether this correction is nearing its end. If it doesn’t hold, I’ll still treat every bounce as a correction within the trend—not a reversal.

After years of trading, I’m growing more and more convinced of one saying: what truly determines direction has never been the moment of the breakout, but whether capital is willing to keep following through after the breakout.
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